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Today, we’re diving into the critical elections of 2025. I know what you’re thinking: 2025? Isn’t it a bit too early to start analyzing elections happening next year, especially when 2024 is still wrapping up? After all, President Trump hasn’t even taken his oath of office yet, and here we are talking about the political battlegrounds of the future.
Well, there’s a good reason for that. These upcoming elections, though they may seem small or insignificant on the surface, are actually quite critical. They’re going to serve as some of the earliest indicators of the political landscape heading into the rest of the decade. Let’s unpack why these elections are so important and take a closer look at what’s at stake.
Why 2025 Elections Matter
2025’s election cycle is unique because it’s the first major test of the national political environment following the decisive Republican victories in November 2024. Now, while 2024 was labeled a “Republican win,” let’s be honest—it was primarily Donald Trump’s victory. The Republican Party, in many ways, rode his coattails to reclaim the Senate and maintain control of the House.
However, here’s the kicker: the margins weren’t huge. The Senate majority is slim, and the House is still narrowly held. This means the GOP doesn’t have a ton of room to make mistakes, and 2025 will be a proving ground for how much of Trump’s coalition they can hold onto in his absence.
Historically, the party in power at the federal level—whether Republican or Democrat—has struggled in midterms and offyear elections. This is due to a natural backlash from voters who want to counterbalance the party in control of the White House. But here’s the twist: we’re living in a time of major political realignment. The traditional rules may not apply anymore.
Take the Republican coalition, for example. Over the last few election cycles, it has transformed dramatically. In the Trump era, the GOP has become the party of highturnout, bluecollar voters—people who historically didn’t participate in midterms or special elections. If Republicans can figure out how to mobilize these voters consistently, even without Trump on the ballot, they might defy historical trends.
That’s why these 2025 elections are so fascinating. They aren’t just about who wins or loses individual races; they’re about setting the stage for 2026, 2028, and beyond.
Special Elections in Virginia
Let’s start with Virginia. In just a few weeks, two special elections will be held in Loudoun County to determine control of the state legislature. While these races might not grab national headlines, they are critical for both parties.
Loudoun County has leaned Democratic in recent years. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden and Harris carried the area by a comfortable margin. As a result, it’s expected that Democrats will win both special elections. However, there’s an important caveat.
Special elections, especially in offyears, tend to have low voter turnout. The people who do show up are usually highly motivated, partisan voters. In recent years, that’s worked to the Democrats’ advantage. They’ve managed to dominate special elections because their base—educated, suburban voters—are more likely to vote in every election, no matter how small.
But here’s the thing: 20 years ago, those same suburban voters were Republicans. The political shifts in Loudoun County reflect the broader realignment happening across the country. If Republicans can make inroads here or even flip one of these seats, it would be a huge red flag for Democrats heading into 2026.
That said, the more likely scenario is a Democratic win in both races. If Republicans manage to overperform or keep the margins closer than expected, it could indicate that Democratic enthusiasm is waning, even in traditionally blue areas.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court Race
Now, let’s talk about Wisconsin, which is arguably the most important state for Republicans in 2025. The upcoming Supreme Court race is a big deal, not just for the state but for the national political landscape.
To understand why this race matters, we need to look back at 2023, when Republicans suffered a humiliating defeat in a similar race. Dan Kelly, the Republican candidate, lost by a landslide, and the conservative majority on the state Supreme Court was wiped out. It was a tough pill to swallow for the GOP, especially in a battleground state like Wisconsin.
But things are different this time. Republicans appear to have rallied behind a strong candidate, Brad Schimel. Schimel is a former Attorney General of Wisconsin who came incredibly close to winning reelection in 2018, despite the fact that it was a bluewave year. He’s been campaigning hard, visiting every corner of the state and building a grassroots operation.
Democrats, meanwhile, are facing a disadvantage. Their incumbent justice is retiring, which means they won’t have the benefit of incumbency in this race. If Schimel can capitalize on this opportunity, he has a real shot at flipping the court back to conservative control.
The challenge, as always, will be turnout. Wisconsin has a large population of lowpropensity Trump voters—people who came out in 2016 and 2020 but might not vote in an offyear Supreme Court race. If Republicans can mobilize these voters, they could win. But if turnout collapses, it’s game over.
What’s at Stake in November?
Fast forward to November 2025, and we’ve got several more critical elections on the calendar.
New Jersey: The governor’s race here could be competitive. While New Jersey leans Democratic at the presidential level, Republicans have been gaining ground in local and state elections. A strong GOP candidate could make this race interesting.
Virginia: Control of the state legislature will be on the line. Republicans have been making gains in Virginia suburbs, but they’ll need to hold onto those voters if they want to flip the state.
New York City: Believe it or not, Republicans could have a shot in the mayoral race, depending on how things play out. If Democrats face a contentious primary or a strong thirdparty candidate emerges, it could create an opening for the GOP.
Florida Special Elections: A few key House seats will be up for grabs, including those held by prominent Republicans like Matt Gaetz and Elise Stefanik.
Ultimately, these 2025 elections are about more than just winning individual races. They’re about testing the strength of each party’s coalition in a post2024 landscape.
For Republicans, the big question is whether they can maintain high turnout among their new base of workingclass voters, even when Trump isn’t on the ballot. If they can, it bodes well for their chances in 2026 and 2028.
For Democrats, the challenge is keeping their coalition motivated in the face of a Trump presidency. If they can’t, it could spell trouble for their hopes of retaking Congress or the White House in the future.
We’re living in a period of political realignment, where the old rules don’t always apply. The results of these races will give us valuable clues about what’s to come.
Thanks for sticking with me through this deep dive into the 2025 elections. If you enjoyed this video, don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share it with your friends. Hit the notification bell so you don’t miss any future uploads. Also, check out the links in the description for my social media accounts and join the channel today for exclusive content.
Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, Godspeed to all of you.
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