Ladies and gentlemen, the time has come for my final 2024 election forecast, covering each state. I’ll start from the western side of the United States and move eastward, leaving swing states blank initially. Afterward, I’ll analyze these key swing states in detail. There are many states with clear outcomes, and I’ll offer my predictions on expected margins in some of them.
Beginning with Washington, I believe Kamala Harris will win here without much difficulty, likely by around 14 or 15 points. Similarly, Harris will probably take Oregon, although by a slightly smaller margin, possibly around 9 or 10 points. Oregon has seen limited polling, but the outcome seems clear. Moving to California, Harris will almost certainly win this state as well. Although Biden carried it by 27 points in 2020, I estimate her margin will be closer to 20-23 points.
I'll mark Nevada as undecided for now and move on to Idaho, where Donald Trump is expected to win comfortably. Montana also looks likely to go to Trump by a wider margin than in 2020, as the Senate race has made the state more notable. Trump’s advantage here could be around 18 or 19 points. He should also win Wyoming with ease, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota.
In Nebraska, I’ll leave the Third District and the at-large results blank for now, especially the Second District, which could act as a swing district. Moving on, Kansas will likely go to Trump. Despite a recent poll showing Trump with only a 5-point lead, signaling Kansas’s gradual shift, he is still expected to secure a larger margin. Trump will easily take Oklahoma as well.
Texas is another significant state where Trump is expected to win by a larger margin than in 2020, when he led by around 5.8 points. The influx of liberals from costly states like California and New York could narrow the gap slightly, but Trump’s margin may still reach around 7-8 points. Alaska is also expected to favor Trump, though the margin may be closer—perhaps around 8 or 9 points, with potential for a slightly wider lead than in 2020, which saw a 10-point margin.
Hawaii, on the other hand, will likely go to Kamala Harris. As for Colorado, although it appeared somewhat competitive in 2016, the influx of liberal voters means Harris will likely secure it with a margin of at least 12-13 points. Utah is expected to go to Trump, and I’ll leave New Mexico undecided for now. Trump did visit New Mexico on Halloween, showing some interest, so it warrants closer consideration.
In Louisiana and Arkansas, Trump is set to win with ease, as well as in Mississippi and Missouri. Although Missouri’s Senate race has been competitive, Trump is still likely to prevail by a comfortable margin. In Iowa, Trump’s expected margin could reach 8-9 points.
I’ll leave Minnesota blank for now, as well as Wisconsin. Illinois will likely go to Harris, possibly by 11-12 points, although by a slimmer margin than Biden’s 2020 victory. This narrowing margin is indicative of a broader shift that could impact the national popular vote.
Kentucky and Tennessee are both solidly for Trump, with Tennessee expected to be an easy win. Alabama is similarly predicted to go to Trump. Florida, which was a swing state in 2020, now seems firmly in Trump’s camp. The only question is by what margin. With Republicans holding a 7-8% advantage in voter registration and independents leaning toward Trump as they did in 2016 and 2020, he may win Florida by a notable margin of around 10-11 points, outperforming early polling predictions.
Moving to other states, I’ll leave Georgia blank, but South Carolina is expected to go to Trump. North Carolina and Virginia will also be left blank for now. Trump is almost certain to win West Virginia and should secure Ohio. Although there have been claims of a narrow Trump lead in Ohio polls, Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020, and it’s unlikely he’ll see such a drastic decline in support. Instead, Trump is likely to win Ohio by 9-9.5 points, which should aid the Senate race there.
Indiana is expected to go to Trump, often one of the first states called on election night. For the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, I’ll leave them blank for further analysis.
In New York, while some Republicans have speculated about potential competitiveness, Harris is still expected to win by a reduced margin of around 13 points—a significant drop from Biden’s 23-point win in 2020, but not close enough to consider a Trump victory.
New Hampshire has also become more competitive, but I’ll leave it blank for now. Vermont, however, is firmly in Harris’s column. In Connecticut and New Jersey, Trump could make some gains, with Biden’s 20-point lead from 2020 likely reduced, though Harris will still carry these states. This narrowing of margins in several blue states highlights the potential for a shift in the popular vote, which could favor Trump.
Massachusetts, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C., and Rhode Island are all expected to go to Harris without issue, concluding the list of clear outcomes for this forecast.
The Maine electoral landscape is indeed interesting. Maine is one of only two states that split their electoral votes by congressional district, which makes it uniquely unpredictable. The First District seems solidly in favor of Harris, given its historically Democratic lean. However, the Second District leans strongly toward Trump, who won it in both 2016 and 2020. This likely split highlights Maine's unusual position and could see a repeat of the one-vote gain for Trump in the second district.
Similarly, Nebraska splits its electoral votes, and the Omaha-based Second District has leaned left in recent years. Polling and demographics suggest a lean toward Harris here, likely by a comfortable margin, as you mentioned—possibly around seven or eight points.
Nevada’s political landscape is a close contest, often leaning slightly Democratic but with substantial Republican support, especially outside Clark County. While early voting in Clark County tends to favor Democrats, recent trends show Republicans gaining ground in Election Day turnout. Polling shows a razor-thin margin, with Trump potentially edging out a narrow victory if current trends hold.
Arizona has been trending Republican again, with recent polling showing Trump slightly ahead. The GOP has been investing significant resources here, and recent elections have shown a conservative shift. As you pointed out, Arizona’s Senate race could also impact the overall turnout and margins in the state, likely benefitting Trump if current polls hold.
New Mexico This state has a consistent Democratic tilt, but polling suggests a narrower margin than usual. Trump’s campaign stop in New Mexico, while symbolic, highlights his interest in making some inroads. Despite this, Harris is expected to win by a modest margin, probably around five points, but closer than past elections.
Minnesota’s strong Democratic tradition makes it a challenging target for Republicans, but the margin could be tighter than previous cycles. The state’s rural areas lean Republican, while urban centers favor Democrats. Harris is expected to hold Minnesota, likely by around four to five points.
Georgia has been a battleground in recent years, with close races that have leaned Democratic in statewide races. However, Trump remains competitive, with polls indicating a narrow lead. Given Georgia’s changing demographics and urban-suburban divide, Trump could pull off a narrow victory, possibly by three to four points.
North Carolina remains a tight race, with recent Republican victories at the state level indicating a slight GOP edge. Polls have shown a slight Trump lead, and if turnout trends hold, Trump could likely win by around two to three points.
While Virginia has trended blue in recent cycles, it’s still somewhat close, with Trump making a last-minute push in the state. Although Harris remains favored, a narrower margin—perhaps around three to four points—reflects the state’s shift as a near-swing state, particularly if Trump’s campaign strategy in the state gains traction.
New Hampshire has shown Democratic leanings, though not by a large margin. Trump is polling closely behind, and a victory here for Harris could be by only two to three points.
Pennsylvania is likely one of the most critical swing states in this election. Trump's appeal in rural areas and Harris’s advantage in urban centers make this a tight race. The campaign efforts in Pennsylvania—particularly Trump’s rallies—may sway undecided voters. Trump could secure Pennsylvania by a narrow margin if his rural base turns out strongly.
Wisconsin and Michigan Both states are quintessential Rust Belt battlegrounds, with close polling. Wisconsin’s conservative tilt gives Trump a slight edge, while Michigan remains a tossup. Trump could win Wisconsin narrowly, and if turnout is high in Michigan’s Republican regions, he might edge out a win there too.
In summary, this map suggests Trump could reach 312 electoral votes if he holds onto key Rust Belt states and gains ground in traditionally blue states. This projection is ambitious but aligns with the current polling and trends in these regions. Meanwhile, Harris’s road to victory would require maintaining her base in Maine’s First District, Nebraska’s Second District, New Mexico, Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, and securing at least one of the Rust Belt states to offset Trump’s expected gains.
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