In recent polls leading up to the election, the landscape is shifting in significant ways. The latest Des Moines Register poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, surprised many by showing Harris slightly ahead in Iowa—a state Trump previously won by a large margin. However, this is just one poll, and experts caution against drawing broad conclusions from a single source. For a fuller picture, they urge looking at national and battleground polls more broadly, including recent data from NBC showing a national tie, with both Harris and Trump at 49%.
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A few key internal figures in the NBC poll have caught the attention of Harris's supporters. Black voters back Harris by an impressive 87-9% margin, an improvement of three points over Biden's performance in 2020. Despite recent discussions about potential declines in her support among Black voters, the NBC data suggests that Harris is actually doing slightly better with this group than Biden did. Additionally, there's a substantial gender gap: women favor Harris by 16 points, while men lean toward Trump by 18 points. This could create a record-breaking 34-point gender gap, which would be the largest in U.S. election history.
On issues, Harris leads Trump by 20 points on abortion rights, while Trump has the advantage on inflation and immigration. Enthusiasm and turnout also play crucial roles. NBC’s poll indicates lower engagement among nonwhite voters, with Latinos and Black voters expressing reduced interest in the election—a potential risk for both parties, as turnout for core Democratic constituencies could impact Harris's margins while also affecting any potential gains for Trump among these groups.
Steve Kornacki, analyzing the battleground states, notes a North-South divide. Harris holds slight leads in Northern states like Wisconsin and Michigan, whereas Trump shows strength in Southern battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. This North-South split could be critical since winning states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would likely secure a victory for Harris without needing additional states.
The new Iowa poll has raised questions about potential shifts in similar Midwestern states. Kornacki highlights the demographic and political similarities between Iowa and Wisconsin, which both saw significant Obama-to-Trump shifts. Although Wisconsin polls haven’t shown the same movement as Iowa, any similar trend could be a signal for broader changes.
As election results start coming in, early reports from states like New Hampshire—a close state in past elections but not heavily polled this cycle—will serve as critical indicators. New Hampshire, nearly split between Clinton and Trump in 2016, could offer early insights into any under-the-radar shifts that could influence the final outcome across the battleground map.
The NBC poll highlights several key demographic trends that both the Harris and Trump campaigns are watching closely. Among them is Harris’s advantage with Black voters, where she has a strong 87%-9% lead over Trump, a slightly better performance than Biden’s in 2020. Despite concerns about her standing with Black voters, this poll shows her holding a solid lead with this group. Gender dynamics are also pivotal: women show a 16-point preference for Harris, while men favor Trump by 18 points, creating a record-setting gender gap of 34 points.
On key issues, Harris’s largest lead over Trump is on abortion, where she holds a 20-point advantage. Conversely, Trump maintains his strength on issues like inflation, cost of living, and particularly on immigration and border policy. Enthusiasm and turnout remain uncertain, particularly among key Democratic constituencies, such as Black and Latino voters, whose levels of engagement could influence overall support margins.
Steve Kornacki at the big board emphasizes that although national polls are tight, with both candidates fluctuating between slight leads, battleground states could be the deciding factor. Trends suggest a North-South divide, with Trump performing better in Sunbelt states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Harris holds onto these northern states, it would push her to the necessary 270 electoral votes if no surprises occur outside the battleground regions.
The poll from Iowa, which shows a surprising edge for Harris, has sparked questions about whether this trend might extend to other battleground states or even regions not previously in play, such as New Hampshire. Iowa’s demographics—heavily white, blue-collar, and rural—are often mirrored in states like Wisconsin, which has shown similar political swings. Kornacki notes that Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly 10 points in recent elections, could indicate a broader shift if the trends persist, especially if issues like abortion continue to resonate locally due to recent legislative changes.
Looking toward Election Day, early voting patterns are expected to favor Democrats due to mail-in ballots, while Republican turnout is expected to spike on Election Day. Kornacki and the NBC team will be closely watching these battleground and potentially overlooked states as early results start to come in Tuesday night. New Hampshire, with its historically tight races, could serve as an early bellwether for unexpected shifts in the national race.
This setup underscores the mixed signals and volatility that define the race, as both candidates strive to secure last-minute undecided voters and mobilize their core bases in the final hours.
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