Today, we’re diving into some important insights on the presidential race, with a special look at the early voting exit polls. We’ve got voters who have already cast their ballots and shared their choices in exit polls. Unlike other types of polling, these aren’t projections from likely voters, registered voters, or general adults—these are responses directly from people who have already voted.
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In this video, we’re going to focus specifically on who these early voters have chosen, using this first round of exit poll data. It's one of the clearest pictures we can get at this stage, and in some cases, the polls even provide insight into why voters made their choices. Today, though, we’ll keep our focus on the numbers: who voted for whom.
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Early Voting Polls: Georgia and North Carolina:
Starting with the numbers, here’s what we’re seeing in Georgia and North Carolina, two states that will be pivotal in determining the election outcome. I'll show you why these states are so important on the electoral map at the end of the video.
According to exit polls from CNN, we have the following figures:
Georgia: Harris is leading with 51% of the early vote, while Trump stands at 44%.
North Carolina: Harris also leads with 51%, with Trump close behind at 45%.
These early voting exit polls show a significant lead for Harris in both states.
Now, there’s an important consideration: these figures are based on data from voters who have already cast their ballots. CNN’s poll methodology likely aims for a balanced representation across party lines, which helps ensure these numbers reflect more than just one side’s voters.
TargetSmart Data and Party Affiliation in Georgia:
Next, let’s crossreference with some additional data from TargetSmart. For states like Georgia, where party registration data isn’t always available, TargetSmart creates modeled estimates to fill in these gaps. This modeled data tells us that, so far:
48% of early voters are Republicans.
45% are Democrats.
7% fall into other categories.
So, Republicans have a slight advantage in turnout among early voters. However, according to the exit polls, Harris still holds a significant lead.
What does this mean? If these exit poll numbers are accurate, it implies that a notable number of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Harris. Republicans make up a larger share of early voters, but Harris is still ahead—suggesting some of these voters, or even some independents, are voting Democrat.
As a hypothetical, if we assume TargetSmart’s numbers are accurate and that Harris truly has 51% of the early vote, some of that percentage must be from Republican voters.
Examining Voter Trends:
The data seems to show some unexpected crossparty voting, particularly with Republicans choosing Harris. And while we might see some Democrats vote for Trump, it’s likely a smaller percentage.
Why is this significant? Because Republicans voting for Harris could represent a significant shift. There are notable conservative organizations, like The Lincoln Project, that have publicly campaigned against Trump, urging Republicans to vote for anyone but him. However, we don’t see that same level of organized crossover on the Democratic side against Harris.
This trend is also reflected by prominent Republican figures like Arnold Schwarzenegger, who have publicly endorsed Harris. It shows that a portion of the Republican base is willing to break party lines, likely due to concerns specific to Trump.
Women Leading in Turnout:
Another key factor is gender. In Georgia, 56% of early voters are women, while men account for 44%. With nearly 4 million ballots already cast, this gender gap could be meaningful for Harris, as polling indicates women are currently more likely to support her.
Considering 2020’s total turnout was about 5 million, the state seems poised to surpass that figure, with Election Day still to come.
Unaffiliated Voters in North Carolina:
North Carolina’s data reveals another interesting trend. Here, the state provides official numbers on party registration:
34% of early voters are Republicans.
33% are Democrats.
29% are unaffiliated.
With such a high number of unaffiliated voters, North Carolina becomes a critical swing state. Exit polls showing a lead for Harris in this state suggest that she has support among unaffiliated voters, possibly at a 2to1 ratio over Trump.
If this polling trend holds, Harris could secure North Carolina, boosted by a blend of Democrat, unaffiliated, and even some Republican votes.
Predictions Moving Forward.
To wrap up, these exit polls and early voting numbers suggest a few key points:
1. Harris’s lead in early voting: Despite high Republican turnout in early voting, Harris’s edge suggests crossparty support from Republicans and strong backing from unaffiliated voters.
2. Higher turnout among women: This gender gap, especially in Georgia, may benefit Harris, given her lead with female voters.
3. Republican crossover voting: With groups like The Lincoln Project actively working against Trump, it’s likely Harris will see continued support from a slice of the Republican base.
Of course, as we move closer to Election Day, Trump may try to challenge the validity of these numbers. We’ve already seen him hint at potential voter fraud claims, even without evidence, possibly signaling an attempt to contest the results if they don’t go his way.
But for now, if these early numbers are any indication, Harris could secure a critical advantage in these states. We’ll continue to track the data and keep you updated as the election unfolds.
Thank you for watching! Remember to like this video and subscribe if you want more election analysis. Until next time, take care.
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