Exit Poll Shows HOW Trump WON 2024 Election

  

Hello friends welcome back to my channel! Today we're diving into one of the most revealing aspects of any election: the exit polls. We've been following polling trends over the last few cycles, and as many of you know, polling accuracy has been a hot topic since 2016. There have been many ups and downs, and a lot of people hoped that by 2024, polling data would become more reliable. Unfortunately, this year’s polling accuracy was not what many anticipated, and it looks like we might have even taken a step backward in some areas. In today’s video, we’ll break down some of the most interesting findings from the exit polls, including shifts in voting patterns across key demographics and the evolving landscape for both candidates.

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Now, we’ve talked before about how traditional polling has often missed the mark in recent years. Polling issues go back to the 2016 presidential election when many polls underestimated Trump’s appeal in key states. The situation improved slightly in 2020, with pollsters making adjustments to their methodologies. However, as we now see in 2024, it seems that polling has again faced challenges. While pollsters have tried to adapt, they still can't capture every nuance, particularly with a constantly shifting electorate. But today, with exit polls, we have a unique opportunity. 

Exit polls are valuable because they are conducted directly after voters leave polling places. Instead of predicting how people might vote, exit polls capture how people actually voted. These results provide insights into voter motivations and demographic shifts. But it’s important to remember that exit polls represent a sample of the electorate, not the entire voting population. Nonetheless, they offer a snapshot that allows us to analyze and understand significant trends, which can be especially telling when comparing results to previous election years.  

One of the first insights we get from the exit polls relates to gender. This year, Kamala Harris won a substantial portion of the female vote, capturing 53% of women voters nationwide, compared to Donald Trump’s 45%. This 3% increase for Trump among female voters compared to previous years is notable. It suggests a growing appeal within a demographic that has historically leaned toward Democratic candidates. This trend could be due to numerous factors, including economic concerns and specific social issues that resonated with certain women voters.

Let’s break down the numbers further. White women nationwide leaned more toward Trump than Harris, with Trump securing 53% of white women voters. This demographic, often considered a significant swing group, can heavily influence election outcomes, especially in suburban areas of battleground states. Harris’s appeal among non-white female voters, however, remains high. For instance, she won the majority of votes from Black women, with 91% casting their ballots for her. These strong numbers from Black women reflect a loyalty to the Democratic Party and its platform on civil rights and social justice issues.  

When we examine voting patterns by race and ethnicity, we see some fascinating changes. The Black vote continues to be a stronghold for Democrats, with Harris winning 85% of Black voters nationwide. Trump, meanwhile, garnered only 13%, which is a minimal increase from 2020. His minor gains among Black voters may reflect efforts to address specific issues, but it didn’t translate to a significant shift in support.

Hispanic voters presented some of the most interesting shifts. Trump received 46% of the Hispanic vote, up 14 percentage points from the 2020 election. This significant increase could be attributed to a stronger alignment on economic issues, such as job creation and small business support, which are particularly relevant to Hispanic communities. Among Hispanic men, Trump’s support was even more pronounced, with 55% of Hispanic men voting for him—a striking 19-point increase since the last election. Hispanic women, however, leaned more toward Harris, with 60% casting their votes in her favor, although Trump still managed to gain an 8-point increase with Hispanic women voters.

Age demographics often play a crucial role in election outcomes. For voters aged 18-29, Harris maintained an edge, winning 54% of the youth vote, while Trump captured 43%. Interestingly, Trump’s numbers in this group rose by 7 percentage points from 2020. This increase suggests that Trump’s outreach efforts to younger voters, particularly through platforms popular among young people, might have made an impact. His presence on social media and appearances on podcasts and youth-centered platforms may have helped him connect with this group.

Among older voters, particularly those aged 65 and above, there was a near-even split, with both Trump and Harris each capturing 49% of this demographic. However, it’s worth noting that Trump’s support among seniors dropped by 3 percentage points compared to the last election. This shift could indicate concerns among older voters about specific policy positions, such as healthcare and Social Security, that are top priorities for this demographic. 

The white voter demographic, which represents a large portion of the electorate, showed interesting trends. Nationwide, Trump received 57% of white voters, while Harris received 41%. However, Trump’s share in this demographic was down by 1 percentage point from 2020. When broken down further, we see that Trump retained a strong lead among white male voters, with 60% casting their vote for him. However, among white women, his lead was slimmer, with 53% supporting him and Harris winning 45%. 

This demographic split underscores some of the challenges for both parties in addressing the complex issues that affect white voters, such as economic security and educational opportunities, which are significant factors for many in this group. Suburban white women, in particular, have become a focal point for both campaigns, as they represent a key swing demographic that can shift the balance in close races.

Income level and educational attainment are also pivotal in understanding voting behavior. Historically, Trump has performed well with non-college-educated white voters, and 2024 was no exception. His policies on trade, job creation, and tax cuts have resonated with this demographic. Harris, on the other hand, drew more support from voters with higher education levels, particularly in urban areas and among white-collar professionals.

Income also played a role in voting preferences. Wealthier voters tended to support Trump, likely due to his pro-business stance and policies focused on economic growth. However, lower-income voters showed stronger support for Harris, likely due to the Democratic platform’s emphasis on expanding healthcare access, improving social safety nets, and implementing fairer wages. 

So, what do these exit polls tell us about the 2024 election? They reveal not only the shifting preferences among various demographics but also the success of targeted campaigning. For instance, Trump’s gains among Hispanic men and younger voters demonstrate the impact of his outreach efforts. At the same time, Harris’s strong support among Black women and younger age groups underscores the enduring connection between these demographics and the Democratic platform.

As we continue to dissect these results, we’ll keep an eye on the implications for future elections. The shifts we’re seeing now could shape the strategies of both parties for years to come.

If you found this breakdown insightful, be sure to give this video a thumbs up! And if you’re interested in staying updated on election insights, political analysis, and the latest in polling data, don’t forget to subscribe to the channel and hit the notification bell so you never miss an update. Let us know in the comments below what you think of these results and which demographic trends surprised you the most. Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for our next deep dive into the midterm races and what they mean for the balance of power in Congress. See you in the next video!