Friends, we are just two days away from the 2024 presidential election. Time is running out, and suspense is growing across the country. Today is November 3, and I can tell you that almost 68 million votes have already been cast across the United States. This level of early participation is truly historic, a reflection of the importance of this election.
In today's show, we're going to go state by state to understand how this early and mail-in voting process is playing out. But before we dive into the details, I want to clarify something important. Here we can see the numbers of voters registered as Democrats and Republicans who have already cast their ballots, but there's a caveat: we can't always assume who they voted for. Why? Because even if they're registered with a party, some voters change their minds. People registered as Democrats could have voted for Donald Trump, and Republicans could have supported Kamala Harris. In this scenario, anything is possible.
So while the registered voter numbers offer us a guide, the mystery of who they supported will remain until all the votes are counted. What we do know is that every vote counts, and the statistics are already showing us some interesting patterns. So, buckle up, because this analysis promises to be revealing. And before we continue, I ask you a small but very important favor: if you find this content useful and informative, please give the video a thumbs up! This helps us grow tremendously and reach more people interested in this type of information. And of course, if you haven't already, please subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications. That way you'll always be up to date with our updates.
Ready! Let’s dive into what’s happening in the key states. As I mentioned, as of today, November 2, there have been approximately 67.9 million early votes cast, including both those cast by mail and in person. Democrats account for 41% of those votes, while Republicans are close behind at 40%. This is remarkably high for Republicans, as in previous elections Democrats have typically had a significant advantage in early voting. However, this year, the difference is just 1%. The remaining 19% are voters who are not affiliated with any party, a group that could decisively tip the balance in either direction.
Now, let’s look at a few states individually to see where we’re seeing potential upsets and which states seem to remain steadfast in their historical leanings. We start in the Northwest, with Washington State. More than 2 million votes have already been cast here, with 54% supporting Democrats and 35% supporting Republicans, while the remaining 11% are classified as other. Based on these numbers, it’s safe to assign Washington State’s 12 electoral votes to Kamala Harris. We now move on to Oregon, where more than 1.1 million ballots have been cast. Here, 40% of the vote is Democratic, 33% Republican, and a remarkable 27% falls into the other category. Given Oregon’s voting history, all eight electoral votes also go to Kamala Harris.
Now, let’s talk about California, the electoral juggernaut with 54 electoral votes up for grabs. To date, nearly 5.9 million votes have been cast. Democrats account for 49% of these votes, while Republicans have registered a whopping 30% — a considerable number for a state that is traditionally blue. The remaining 21% are in the other category. While the Republican vote count is impressive, California remains a Democratic stronghold, and so we allocate all 54 electoral votes to Kamala Harris.
Now, let's look at the state of Idaho. There have been 289,000 ballots cast here, and the Republicans have an overwhelming lead with 64% of the vote. The Democrats have only 15%, and the remaining 21% goes to others. Idaho, without a doubt, remains Donald Trump territory, with its four electoral votes secured. The same is true in Utah, where 275,000 votes have been cast. The Republicans lead with 53%, followed by the Democrats with 28% and 19% in the other category. So Utah, with its six electoral votes, also goes to Donald Trump.
Now we turn to two crucial states in this election: Nevada and Arizona. In Nevada, more than 1 million ballots have been cast, and Republicans are leading with 39%, closely followed by Democrats with 35%. The remaining 26% belong to unaffiliated voters, which could be key. Right now, Donald Trump is ahead, but the race remains very close. Arizona is another state in play. Nearly 2 million votes have been cast here, and Republicans also have the lead with 41% to Democrats' 34%. The remaining 25% remains an unknown. Arizona, for now, is also leaning toward Donald Trump.
Alaska and Hawaii present unique cases. In Alaska, 69,987 votes have been cast, and while the other category leads with 45%, Republicans follow closely behind with 34%, and Democrats lag behind with just 17%. Alaska remains red with three electoral votes for Trump. In Hawaii, the others are also in the lead with 44%, closely followed by Democrats with 43%, while Republicans have a distant 13%. Hawaii, with four electoral votes, we assign to Kamala Harris.
Montana and Wyoming are other interesting early voting states. In Montana, 361,000 ballots have been cast, with 47% going to Republicans, 19% to Democrats, and 34% in the other category. Montana remains in Donald Trump's column, with four electoral votes. Wyoming is even stronger: of the 77,534 ballots cast, Republicans dominate with 78%, and Democrats have just 15%. Wyoming's three electoral votes also go to Trump.
The state of Colorado is interesting, with 1.65 million votes cast. Although independents lead with 42%, Democrats are not far behind with 30%, and Republicans are close behind with 28%. Colorado is allocated to Kamala Harris, but with great expectations. In New Mexico, 492,000 votes have been cast. Here, Democrats have a solid lead with 48%, Republicans have 37%, and others add 15%. Five electoral votes for Kamala Harris.
Texas, the second-largest state in terms of electoral votes, has recorded more than 8 million votes. Here, Republicans lead with 51%, and Democrats are at 37%. Texas remains in Donald Trump's column, with 40 electoral votes. Oklahoma, with 249,000 votes cast, also leans toward Trump, with 50% for Republicans and only 36% for Democrats. Oklahoma adds seven more electoral votes for Trump.
We move on to Kansas, where more than 545,000 early votes have been cast. Here, Republicans dominate with an impressive 60%, while Democrats are far behind, with just 27%. The remaining 13% are classified as unaffiliated voters. Kansas, with its six electoral votes, remains firmly in Donald Trump's column.
In Nebraska, the analysis gets a little more complex, as this state divides its electoral votes by district. So far, 327,000 votes have been cast statewide. Republicans lead with 52%, Democrats have 34%, and the remaining 14% are from other voters. The overall statewide vote and rural districts are fairly safe for Trump, but there is strong competition in the 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses Omaha and surrounding areas. Here, Kamala Harris has a chance to snatch a key electoral vote.
Let’s move on to the Dakotas. In North Dakota, 91,000 votes have been cast. Republicans lead with 64%, while Democrats have just 21%, with others adding up to the remaining 15%. The state’s three electoral votes are solidly in favor of Donald Trump. South Dakota is similar, with 152,000 votes cast, where Republicans also lead with 65% and Democrats trail far behind with 22%. South Dakota’s three electoral votes go to Trump.
Minnesota, a state that has been a crucial battleground in recent elections, has seen 1.4 million early votes cast. Here, Democrats are in the lead with 43%, while Republicans are not far behind at 36%. The remaining 21% are unaffiliated voters, and this group is particularly important in determining the outcome. Minnesota has been a traditionally blue state, and while Trump has made significant gains here, all ten electoral votes still lean toward Kamala Harris, but it is a state to watch closely.
In Iowa, the competition is fierce. 762,000 votes have been cast, with 39% going to Republicans and 38% to Democrats. Only 23% went to other voters, making this state one of the closest in the Midwest. Iowa, with its six electoral votes, is a real battleground, and both candidates are making a big effort to appeal to undecided voters.
Speaking of battlegrounds, Wisconsin is a must-see. With 1.6 million votes cast, Democrats are leading by a slim margin with 44% to Republicans' 42%. Only 14% of voters are independents, which could be decisive. Wisconsin is one of those states that Kamala Harris must win to maintain her hopes of reaching the White House, but Donald Trump is also fighting hard for every vote.
In Michigan, another crucial state with 15 electoral votes, more than 2.8 million votes have been cast. Democrats lead with 45%, while Republicans have 39%, with the remaining 16% split among unaffiliated voters. Michigan is tricky terrain, especially after Trump surprised everyone by winning here in 2016. Harris has made multiple visits to the state in recent weeks, while Trump has also devoted significant resources. The battle for Michigan will be intense down to the last vote.
Ohio has seen 2.5 million early votes cast, and the picture here is particularly interesting. Republicans are leading with 46%, and Democrats have 40%, with 14% of the votes coming from unaffiliated voters. Ohio has historically been a swing state in presidential elections, and with 17 electoral votes, Trump appears to have a slight edge. However, the margin is still narrow enough that anything could happen.
Now we come to Pennsylvania, arguably the most crucial state of this election, with 19 electoral votes up for grabs. Nearly 3.4 million votes have been cast, and Democrats are leading with 47% to Republicans’ 41%. However, the 12% of unaffiliated voters could be game-changing. Turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will be key for Kamala Harris, while Trump hopes to maximize votes in rural areas of the state. This is a state where every vote matters, and both candidates are pulling out all the stops.
We move south, where things get even more exciting. In Georgia, more than 3.8 million early votes have been cast, with 41% going to Republicans and 40% to Democrats. Only 19% are from other voters. Georgia has been a Republican state for decades, but the recent growth of metropolitan areas has made elections here much more competitive. With 16 electoral votes, Georgia is a key state for both parties, and turnout from African-American and suburban voters will be crucial.
In North Carolina, another crucial state with 15 electoral votes, more than 2.9 million votes have been cast. Republicans lead with 43%, Democrats are at 42%, and the remaining 15% are unaffiliated voters. North Carolina is a fierce battleground, and both candidates have held multiple visits and rallies to make sure their bases are motivated.
Florida, with its 30 electoral votes, is always the biggest prize in the South. Here, more than 6.5 million votes have already been cast, with 42% going to Republicans and 41% to Democrats. Only 17% are unaffiliated voters, meaning this state could be decided by a razor-thin margin. South Florida, with its large Hispanic population, could be the deciding factor, and both candidates have invested heavily in advertising and high-profile visits to this region.
In the Northeast, New York has recorded more than 4 million early votes. Here, Democrats have an overwhelming lead at 55%, while Republicans only add up to 29%, with other voters accounting for the remaining 16%. New York's 28 electoral votes are safely in Kamala Harris' column.
New Jersey, with 1.7 million votes cast, shows a similar pattern. Democrats lead with 50%, compared to 32% for Republicans and 18% for other voters. New Jersey's 14 electoral votes also go to Harris without much surprise.
In New Hampshire, a small but important state, 328,000 votes have been cast. Democrats lead with 44%, Republicans have 41%, and 15% are unaffiliated voters. New Hampshire's four electoral votes could be crucial, and this state is known for its unexpected outcomes.
Maine, which like Nebraska divides its electoral votes by district, has cast 376,000 ballots. Democrats are ahead with 46%, Republicans have 36%, and others add 18%. Maine’s overall vote and the 1st district go to Kamala Harris, but the 2nd congressional district is much more competitive and could go to Trump.
In short, the 2024 election landscape remains incredibly close and full of uncertainty. While some trends seem clear, the high number of independent voters and shifting voting patterns make every prediction risky. Both candidates have paths to victory, but it all comes down to turnout on Election Day. So, if you haven't voted yet and are eligible, be sure to make your voice heard!
That's it for today's analysis. As always, I thank you for being here and for taking the time to inform yourself about this crucial electoral process. Don't forget to give this video a like if you found it informative, subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don't miss our next updates. We're in the final stretch of these elections, and we promise to keep you informed with the latest developments!
Thank you for your continued support. See you in the next video!
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