2024 election update: New poll shows Kamala Harris ahead by 3 points in Iowa | Nov. 3
In the final weekend before Election Day, a shocking new Iowa poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 points in the Hawkeye State.
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Plus, on Saturday, Vice President Kamala Harris made a surprise appearance on "Saturday Night Live" in the final days before the election, playing herself as the mirror-image double of Maya Rudolph’s version of her in the show's cold open.
As America prepares to pick a new president – and Tri-State residents choose how to fill out their own ballots – we dive into the latest national and local election news, polls, campaign trail stops, maps and more.
When is Election Day 2024?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2 days from today.
A new Iowa poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 points.
The Des Moines Register-sponsored poll of Iowa was released Saturday, three days before the Nov. 5 election. It was done by J. Ann Selzer, the "gold standard" pollster in Iowa, according to Axios.
The poll is an outlier – an Emerson poll released Saturday showed Trump ahead by 10 points in Iowa – but it does hint that there could be some surprises come Tuesday. Selzer is known for past polls that accurately predicted Trump's 8-point lead in Iowa over Joe Biden in 2020 and his comfortable victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
One big takeaway: The poll shows Harris with a 20 percentage point lead over Trump among women, and she's cut his lead among men by half since September. Overall, the poll shifted seven points away from Trump to Harris since September.
‘Near-Tie’: Harris is up 49%-48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll (Oct. 31)
Harris also leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey (Oct. 30)
Where are Trump and Harris today?
Vice President Kamala Harris: The Democratic nominee will campaign in Michigan.
Former President Donald Trump: The Republican nominee will stop in three eastern battleground states in the final days ahead of Election Day.
270 to Win Election Map
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
With a Senate seat up for grabs, New Yorkers will soon head to the polls to choose between incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and political newcomer Mike Sapraicone.
Gillibrand, who has represented New York since 2009, is known for her bipartisan efforts on issues such as military sexual assault and equal pay, while Sapraicone, a former NYPD officer, is focused on restoring integrity in government and addressing public safety.
With critical issues like affordability, border security, and quality of life at stake, this election could prove to be pivotal for New Yorkers as they decide who will represent them in Washington.
Before we get into the details, if you’re enjoying this content, please give the video a like! And if you want to stay updated on the latest election news, consider subscribing to the channel. Alright, let’s talk about something crucial: voting. We all need to get out and vote. If you've already voted, encourage your friends and family to do the same. This is our opportunity to actively participate in our democracy. Remember, polls don’t vote—people do. So let's not assume a lead in the polls is enough; everyone needs to show up and cast their ballot.
Now, let’s get back to this new poll out of Iowa. Conducted by the Des Moines Register, it shows Kamala Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely Iowa voters. Why is this significant? Well, Iowa isn't traditionally considered a swing state, yet here we see Harris leading. This could indicate a larger shift happening across the country. For example, back in September, Trump led by four points in Iowa, so Harris closing that gap shows momentum building in her favor.
Looking at the track record of this pollster, known as the Iowa Selzer poll, their accuracy has been impressive. In past elections, they've closely predicted the outcomes, such as calling Iowa's 2020 Senate race almost spot-on. So, seeing Harris with a lead in this latest poll should catch our attention. Even if there’s a slight margin of error, Harris still comes out on top or very close to it.
Now, why might we be seeing this shift, particularly with older women and independent women in Iowa? According to the poll, independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, and senior women are also showing strong support. One likely factor is the Dobbs decision, which rolled back protections under Roe v. Wade. Many women over 65 remember the time before Roe, and seeing these protections reversed may feel like a step backward.
Another factor could be Trump's approach and personality. Older voters, especially women, tend to be turned off by vulgarity and drama, and Trump's style may be pushing them toward Harris. This shift in Iowa could be an early indicator of similar changes in other states. If states that typically lean Republican, like Iowa, are closer than expected, we might see battleground states swinging more decisively in Harris’s favor, potentially leading to a significant win.
Let’s also look at what this means for the electoral map. Iowa has six electoral votes, so while it may not be the biggest state, its close race suggests broader trends. Harris’s best pathway to victory is through key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Winning those alone would give her the presidency. For Trump, his most straightforward path is through Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. But if Iowa, and possibly other states, are moving away from him, he could face a challenging path to victory.
Now, if we apply this trend nationally, even Texas might become competitive. Texas has 40 electoral votes, and while it’s traditionally Republican, a close Senate race and a shift in voter sentiment could make it interesting. If Texas were to go blue, it would all but secure a win for Harris.
In summary, this Iowa poll is good news for Harris, but nothing is set in stone. So, get out there and vote, and encourage others to do the same. This election could come down to the wire, and every vote will count!
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