US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.

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The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.

The big question now is - will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?

As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.

Who is leading national polls?

Harris has had a small lead over Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July and she remains ahead - as shown in the chart below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number.

Harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers in the first few weeks of her campaign, building a lead of nearly four percentage points towards the end of August.

The numbers were relatively stable through September, even after the only debate between the two candidates on 10 September, which was watched by nearly 70 million people.

In the last few days the gap between them has tightened, as you can see in the poll tracker chart below, with the trend lines showing the averages and the dots showing the individual poll results for each candidate.

While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election.

That's because the US uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.

What is the electoral college?

Who is winning in swing state polls?

Right now the polls are very tight in the seven states considered battlegrounds in this election and neither candidate has a decisive lead in any of them, according to the polling averages.

If you look at the trends since Harris joined the race, it does help highlight some differences between the states - but it’s important to note that there are fewer state polls than national polls so we have less data to go on and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.

In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the lead has changed hands a few times since the start of August but Trump has a small lead in all of them at the moment.

In the three other states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - Harris had led since the start of August, sometimes by two or three points, but in recent days the polls have tightened significantly and Trump now has a very small lead in Pennsylvania.

All three of those states had been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same then she will be on course to win the election.

In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day that Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in the seven swing states.

In Pennsylvania, Biden was behind by nearly 4.5 percentage points when he dropped out, as the chart below shows. It is a key state for both campaigns as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed.

How are these averages created?

The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.

As part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).

Can we trust the polls?

At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other in all of the swing states - and when the race is that close, it’s very hard to predict winners.

Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population.

Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November.

U.S. Election Polls: Who Holds the Advantage—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

As Americans prepare to cast their votes on November 5, 2024, the political landscape is charged with anticipation and speculation. This election cycle began as a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election, but significant developments unfolded in July, dramatically altering the race's dynamics. President Joe Biden, facing challenges in his campaign, opted to suspend his run and throw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. This endorsement has reshaped the electoral contest and raised a pivotal question: Will the United States elect its first woman president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term?

With election day fast approaching, political analysts and voters alike are closely monitoring the polling data to gauge how the candidates are faring in the race for the White House. In this comprehensive overview, we will delve into national polling averages, state-level dynamics, and the implications of electoral strategies as we track the evolving contest between Harris and Trump.

In the wake of Biden's withdrawal from the race, Harris has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, demonstrating a steady presence in national polling averages. Since her campaign began at the end of July, she has maintained a modest lead over Trump, as evidenced by recent polling data. The latest figures indicate that Harris's support has fluctuated, showcasing a nearly four-point advantage by the end of August. This initial surge reflected a bounce in her polling numbers, as voters responded positively to her candidacy.

Throughout September, Harris's polling numbers stabilized, even in the aftermath of the sole debate between her and Trump on September 10, which drew an impressive audience of nearly 70 million viewers. The debate served as a critical platform for both candidates to articulate their visions and policies, potentially swaying undecided voters.

However, as the election nears, the race has tightened. Recent data shows a narrowing gap between the two candidates, with polling trackers indicating a shift in voter sentiment. While national polls serve as an essential tool for assessing a candidate's popularity across the country, they do not necessarily predict the ultimate outcome of the election. The U.S. employs an electoral college system, where each state is allocated electoral votes proportional to its population size. A total of 538 electoral votes are up for grabs, necessitating a minimum of 270 for a candidate to secure victory.

While national polling averages provide a broad overview of candidate popularity, the actual path to the presidency is heavily influenced by swing states, also known as battleground states. These are critical territories where both candidates have a viable chance of winning, and they often determine the election's outcome. In the 2024 election cycle, there are seven states considered battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

As the polling data evolves, it becomes increasingly apparent that the competition in these swing states is fierce. Currently, neither Harris nor Trump has a decisive lead in any of these critical areas. The polling averages reveal a complex landscape, with Trump currently holding slight advantages in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Conversely, Harris has maintained a lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, though recent trends indicate a tightening race in these regions as well.

Historically, these states have fluctuated between Democratic and Republican candidates, making them crucial for any campaign. Trump's previous victories in these areas during the 2016 election contributed to his overall success, while Biden's reclaiming of these states in the 2020 election was pivotal to his victory. For Harris to replicate Biden's success in these swing states, she will need to capitalize on the support she has garnered while addressing the shifting dynamics of the electorate.

Delving deeper into the battleground state polling, a closer examination reveals fluctuations in voter preferences. For instance, in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump's polling numbers have shown a slight lead, reflecting a competitive atmosphere as the election date draws near. This shift suggests a potential resurgence of support for the former president, which could pose a significant challenge for Harris's campaign.

On the other hand, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have historically leaned Democratic, but recent polling data indicates a more competitive race. Harris initially held a lead in these states, often by two to three percentage points, but the latest figures show that Trump has gained ground, particularly in Pennsylvania, where he now holds a narrow lead. This development is particularly noteworthy given Pennsylvania's historical significance in presidential elections; it has the highest number of electoral votes among the battleground states, making it a critical target for both candidates.

The evolution of voter sentiment since Harris entered the race has been marked by various factors, including demographic shifts, economic conditions, and the candidates' campaign strategies. When Biden suspended his campaign, polls indicated that he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average across the battleground states. This context underscores the challenge Harris faces in reclaiming lost ground and securing crucial electoral votes.

In Pennsylvania, Biden was behind Trump by approximately 4.5 percentage points when he exited the race, highlighting the necessity for Harris to not only recover lost support but also to expand her voter base. Her ability to resonate with key demographic groups, such as suburban voters, women, and young people, will play a pivotal role in her campaign strategy as she seeks to forge a path to victory.

Understanding the electoral college system is vital to comprehending the intricacies of the election process. While the national popular vote offers insight into overall candidate popularity, it is the accumulation of electoral votes that ultimately determines the election's outcome. The allocation of these votes is not uniform; states with larger populations possess more electoral votes, which can skew national polling perceptions.

In total, 538 electoral votes are available, with candidates needing to secure at least 270 to claim victory. Given the concentration of votes in certain states, a few key battlegrounds can tip the balance of the election. For instance, states like Florida, Texas, and Ohio often serve as critical indicators of overall electoral trends. However, the focus for both Harris and Trump remains firmly on the seven swing states, as these will be instrumental in their quest for the presidency.

As the election approaches, skepticism regarding the reliability of polling data has resurfaced. The 2016 and 2020 elections served as reminders of the potential pitfalls of polling, as many organizations underestimated support for Trump. Consequently, polling companies are making concerted efforts to enhance their methodologies and ensure that their results more accurately reflect the makeup of the voting population.

This endeavor involves making adjustments to account for factors such as demographic shifts, voter turnout patterns, and the methodologies employed in conducting polls. As the dynamics of the electorate evolve, pollsters face the challenge of accurately predicting voter behavior and preferences. This includes making educated guesses about who will ultimately turn out to vote on November 5.

As election day approaches, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains tight, with national and battleground polling suggesting a highly competitive environment. Harris's initial lead has narrowed, with recent trends indicating a shifting landscape as both candidates vie for the support of undecided voters.

The battleground states will be the key to determining the election's outcome, as both candidates focus their efforts on securing vital electoral votes. With polling data in flux and uncertainties surrounding voter turnout, predicting the winner is fraught with challenges. However, the stakes are high, and both candidates understand the significance of the upcoming election.

As the clock ticks down to November 5, all eyes will be on the polls, debates, and campaign strategies as Harris and Trump navigate the final leg of their campaigns. The outcome of this election will not only determine the next president of the United States but could also have lasting implications for the future of American politics and society. Will Kamala Harris make history as the first woman president, or will Donald Trump reclaim the White House for a second term? Only time will tell, and the race is far from over.