Hello friends, welcome back to my channel. Today we'll be diving into a crucial topic: the presidential race, focusing specifically on Georgia. As we get closer to the election, it's important to stay informed about the voting process, turnout statistics, and what they could mean for the upcoming election.
In this video, we'll hear from Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who will shed some light on the current state of elections in Georgia. He has some key information that could impact our view of the race. Next, we'll analyze some raw data coming out of Georgia and review the electoral map to see if there are any notable changes we can report on.
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Let's start with the Secretary of State's comments. In a viral video of Brad Raffensperger talking about voter turnout:
He said
“We currently have over 1.7 million voters, and while we may not be at 1.8 million today, we certainly expect to hit that number by 10 a.m. On the first day of early voting, we had an astounding turnout of over 302,000 people, compared to our previous record of 135,000. Based on this trend, we anticipate nearly 4 million early votes by the time early voting concludes next Friday. With Saturday voting included this week and five additional days of early voting next week, lines are moving quickly. We are registering voters in less than three minutes, and most wait times are less than an hour. This is a significant improvement from the 2020 election.”
This statement is encouraging and highlights the efforts to ensure fair and efficient elections in Georgia. Raffensperger highlighted that 70% of the votes will be known by 8:00 pm on election night, which is critical to getting timely results. This is especially important given the controversies surrounding voting processes in previous elections. If we can see mainstream media outlets declaring victories on election night based on these results, that would certainly be a positive sign for Georgia’s electoral process.
Now, let’s look at the data. A recent article reported that nearly 4 million Georgians could vote early in the 2024 election. This figure is significant because it indicates that the majority of voters are opting for early voting and mail-in voting.
To get a clearer picture, we'll reference some data from TargetSmart, as well as the official state of Georgia website. It's important to note that TargetSmart uses a modeled approach to match registration, meaning these numbers aren't definitive, but they can offer some insights.
According to TargetSmart, as of October 23, the match log shows:
- Republicans: 48%
- Democrats: 46%
- Others: 6%
When we look at mail-in ballots, we see a different picture:
- Democrats: 57%
- Republicans: 35%
- Others: 8%
At first glance, it might seem like Republicans are outpacing Democrats in early voting. However, when we factor in mail-in ballots that have been requested but not yet mailed, the dynamics begin to change.
With approximately 308,000 mail-in ballots requested:
- 57% of them are Democrats, which translates to approximately 67,000 potential votes.
On the other hand, early voting figures show a Republican lead of around 40,000 votes according to our previous calculations. This gives Democrats a potential lead of around 177,000 votes when we take into account early votes combined with early mail-in ballots.
Now, let's look at turnout by age. Voters 65 and older make up 40% of all early voters, and 54% of requested mail-in ballots are in this age group. This demographic is particularly important, as older voters tend to have higher turnout rates.
Additionally, the 50-64 age group is also noteworthy, comprising 31% of early voters. This matches data from a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Harris now has a 2-point lead over Trump among voters 65 and older — a shift from a month ago, when Trump held the lead.
Regarding gender, the data indicate:
- Women: 55% of early voters
- Men: 45%
For mail-in ballot requests:
- Women: 59%
- Men: 41%
These figures suggest that female voters are showing a stronger presence in both early voting and mail-in voting, which could influence the overall election results.
Let’s take a look at current voter turnout in Georgia for a moment. So far, more than 2 million active voters have already cast their ballots, which represents about 30% of registered voters in the state. This turnout is promising, especially when you consider the historical context of voter turnout.
I haven't yet dug into the turnout percentages for each county. Let's do that now. I'm going to look at the county breakdown, which will allow us to see how different regions are participating.
For example, counties with larger populations, such as Fulton and Cobb, tend to show strong early voting numbers, reflecting their urban demographics. Conversely, more rural counties may lag in turnout, which can impact overall results.
In summary, Georgia's electoral landscape is shaping up to be dynamic. With impressive early voting numbers, significant requests for mail-in ballots, and shifting voting demographic patterns, we're in for an interesting race.
As we approach Election Day, it's critical to keep an eye on these trends and be prepared for potential surprises. Thanks for tuning in today. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and leave your thoughts in the comments below. What are your predictions for the election results in Georgia?
Until next time, stay informed and engaged!
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