Today we'll be taking a deep dive into the latest polls as we approach the 2024 presidential election which is just three weeks away As the race intensifies it's crucial to dissect the data we have at hand While certain states appear to be leaning towards specific candidates the battleground states are where the real contest lies This analysis will take a different approach by excluding partisan polls Instead we'll focus on non-partisan data to assess whether this alters the results and we'll take a look at Trump's usual lead in elections which often plays a major role in predicting the winner However this time we'll explore whether polls could be more accurate than in previous elections
Nevada: A Battle State
Starting with Nevada, current polls show Kamala Harris leading by just .05 points when partisan polling is taken into account. However, examining the nonpartisan data reveals a more nuanced picture. For example, a recent poll conducted by Morning Consult from October 6-15 that surveyed 496 likely voters indicates Harris leads by four points. This suggests a more favorable position for her than the overall partisan polls would imply.
Another nonpartisan poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and sponsored by The Telegraph from October 12-14 among 838 likely voters finds Harris and Trump tied at 47%. Similarly, an Emerson College poll from October 5-8 involving 900 likely voters shows Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%. Given these findings without considering the influence of partisan polls we can categorize Nevada as leaning Democratic, albeit by a very narrow margin.
Arizona: Trump gains ground
Moving on to Arizona, polls indicate Trump has gained ground in the state. According to a YouGov poll conducted Oct. 11-16 sponsored by CBS News, Trump leads Harris by three points with Trump at 51% and Harris at 48%. This trend is mirrored in the Morning Consult poll conducted Oct. 6-15 which shows Harris slightly ahead with 49% compared to Trump's 48%.
However, a nonpartisan Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll that surveyed 1,141 likely voters between Oct. 12-14 shows Trump leading by two points with Harris at 46% and Trump at 48%. Considering these various polls, it is reasonable to conclude that even without Trump's historic lead in Arizona, he is likely to secure the state.
Georgia: The race is getting tighter
In Georgia, a recent poll shows Trump leading Harris by a slim two-point margin A nonpartisan ActiveVote poll conducted Oct. 1-17 that surveyed 400 likely voters shows Harris at 49% and Trump at 51% While some partisan polls indicate Harris has a lead, a combination of nonpartisan polls suggests a more competitive picture
For example, a poll conducted by Insider Advantage and Heritage from October 14-15 among 800 registered voters puts Trump at 49% and Harris at 47%. Meanwhile, the Morning Consult poll conducted in the same period indicates a close race with Harris at 48% and Trump at 49%. Given the current dynamics, Georgia is likely a swing state that leans slightly toward Trump.
North Carolina: A Republican Stronghold
North Carolina polls present a surprising narrative as it appears to be closer than Georgia despite traditionally leaning Republican. A recent Morning Consult poll conducted October 6-15 shows Trump leading by just 09 points. In the same period, another nonpartisan poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies among 620 likely voters shows Trump at 48% and Harris at 46%, reinforcing the idea of a close race.
However, other polls, such as one by Signal Research sponsored by the Carolina Journal, indicate a technical tie with 47% each. Although some polls suggest Harris has an advantage, general non-partisan polls point to a Republican victory, which leads us to conclude that North Carolina is probably a guaranteed victory for Trump.
The Midwest: Crucial Battlegrounds
As we shift focus to the Midwest Wisconsin is a pivotal state for Democrats In 2020 Biden won Wisconsin by a 71-point margin but current polls tell a different story Nonpartisan polls indicate the race is very close For example, a poll conducted by the Bullfinch Group between October 5 and 11 among 600 likely voters shows Harris at 48% and Trump at 46%
Another RMG Research poll from Oct. 10-16 of 787 likely voters shows Harris at 49% and Trump at 50%. Morning Consult's data lines up similarly, showing Trump leading by one point with Harris at 47% and Trump at 48%. Even though Harris shows some competitive strength in Wisconsin, we must consider this state crucial to her campaign.
Michigan: Challenges for Democrats
In Michigan Harris leads by a narrow margin of 05 points according to a recent Bullfinch Group poll indicating that she has an advantage of eight points but other data contradicts this RMG research conducted between October 10 and 16. The Morning Consult poll indicates that both candidates have 48% of the votes.
Given the recent dynamics and sentiments of the Arab American population regarding Harris' stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict coupled with the potential alienation of the Jewish electorate, Michigan presents significant challenges for Democrats. While current polls suggest a slight lead for Harris, the situation remains precarious and we cannot confidently project a Democratic victory here.
Pennsylvania: A Warning Sign
In Pennsylvania Harris' lead has shrunk to just 0.1 point which is alarming for her campaign. Given that Pennsylvania has historically been a Democratic stronghold this narrow margin signals worrying signs. The most recent polls show a close race or slight leads for either candidate but Trump has been gaining ground.
Bullfinch Group and Morning Consult polls indicate Harris is barely holding on to her lead and Trump is frequently closing the gap The current outlook suggests that if these trends continue Pennsylvania could be a significant obstacle for Harris' campaign
Conclusion: Electoral Map Predictions
Based on the analysis of these swing states, if the election were held today, I would predict that the electoral map would look something like this: Trump with 296 electoral votes versus Harris's 242. This projection considers the best-case scenario for the Democrats, which would yield an electoral count of 276 for Harris and 262 for Trump.
However, it is critical to keep in mind that unforeseen events could easily alter these results. For example, if Nevada unexpectedly turns red or if other dynamics drastically change the electoral landscape, it could change overnight.
Ultimately the closeness of this race is not a positive indicator for the Democratic Party especially considering the potential impact of Trump's historical advantages that have shaped past elections.
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