In the weeks leading up to the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump is enjoying a significant surge in popularity. With less than a month remaining, he continues to gain ground in key swing states. Recently, Trump secured a lead in yet another battleground state, following his strong performance in Pennsylvania the previous week. In order to expedite the process of predicting the electoral map, I have already filled in the solid states for both candidates based on the most recent polling data.
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As of now, Trump has secured 126 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris has 97. Harris is currently ahead in Washington by a margin of 13.7%, and this lead makes it likely that the state will remain in the Democratic column. However, it’s important to remember that just four years ago, Joe Biden won Washington by nearly 20 points, making Harris’s chances of maintaining a blue state relatively high unless something drastically changes in the final stretch of the campaign. Harris’s lead, though diminished, suggests that Washington is still safely in her favor.
In Oregon, another traditionally blue state, Harris is only leading by about 5%, a much narrower margin than usual. This state, much like Nevada, has shifted from its usual Democratic stronghold status to being more competitive this cycle. Nevada, a state that Biden won four years ago, is now showing signs of a tight race. Polls indicate that Harris still has a small lead, but it’s evident that Trump is gaining momentum. In fact, many political analysts are suggesting that Trump could be the first Republican to flip Nevada since 2004, and the betting markets seem to agree, with Trump now emerging as the favorite in several key battleground states.
In Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump has taken the lead in the polls, further solidifying his strong position. Just a few days ago, Trump also led in Pennsylvania, another critical swing state. North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia are also leaning towards Trump, with Harris only holding a slim advantage in Nevada. Although Harris is ahead by an average of 1.1% in Nevada, it’s worth noting that Biden led by 6 points at this same time in 2020 and ended up winning the state by just 2.4%. Given this history, it is highly unlikely that Harris will be able to hold on to Nevada as Trump continues to gain support. As a result, Nevada will likely turn red on election night, adding to Trump's electoral vote count.
The state of Arizona, which has seen a noticeable shift to the right, is another key battleground where Trump has overtaken Harris. In 2020, Biden was leading in Arizona by three points in October, but this time around, Trump holds a 1.4% advantage. The polling data clearly shows that the electorate in Arizona is favoring the former president, making it highly improbable that Harris will be able to reclaim the state. In fact, most polls have consistently shown Trump in the lead, with Harris only briefly taking a slim lead in mid-August before falling behind once again. As Trump continues to expand his lead, Arizona is all but certain to go red once again in 2024.
Moving to Colorado and New Mexico, both states that Biden won by double digits in 2020, Harris is not performing as well as her predecessor. A recent poll in Colorado shows Harris with an 11% lead, but since this is an internal Democratic poll, the actual margin may be closer to seven or even five points. In New Mexico, Harris is similarly trailing behind Biden’s 2020 performance, though she still maintains a lead in both states. Nonetheless, the fact that she is doing worse in these traditionally blue states is a sign that the overall electoral landscape is not in her favor.
Texas, a state that has historically leaned Republican, appears to be solidly in Trump’s corner once again. Four years ago, polls showed Texas as a virtual toss-up, but Trump ultimately won the state by nearly six points. This time around, Trump is leading by 5.4%, and it’s likely that he will win Texas by an even larger margin than he did in 2020. While polling suggests that Texas will lean Republican, the state could very well shift into the “likely Republican” column on election night.
In Nebraska’s second district, which encompasses Omaha and its surrounding areas, Harris has a 10% lead. However, this district’s electoral vote is unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall outcome. With Harris currently trailing in key Midwestern states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it is clear that she will need to win all three of these states in order to secure the 270 electoral votes required for victory. In contrast, Trump only needs to win one of these three states to clinch the election, making Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes particularly crucial.
Looking at Minnesota, a state that has been competitive in recent elections, Harris is leading by 4.7%, but this is a concerningly narrow margin for a Democratic candidate in a state that has leaned blue in recent cycles. Joe Biden won Minnesota by seven points in 2020, but Harris is struggling to match that performance. If Harris fails to maintain a significant lead in Minnesota, it could signal further trouble for her campaign.
In Wisconsin, Trump is just 0.5% away from overtaking Harris, and he has led three of the last four state polls. Harris’s lead in Wisconsin has been steadily declining since last month, and it appears that the state is on the verge of flipping to Trump. In 2020, Biden led Wisconsin by 5.5% in the polls but ended up winning the state by only 0.63%. With Harris’s current lead at just 0.5%, it’s highly likely that the polling error will once again benefit Trump, and Wisconsin will go red on election night.
Michigan, another key battleground, is showing similar trends. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows Trump leading by 0.5%, a significant shift from just a month ago when Harris was leading by five points. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.8%, but the state now has a noticeable rightward tilt. With Trump in the lead, Michigan is likely to turn red once again, further adding to Trump’s electoral vote total.
Pennsylvania, often regarded as the “tipping point” state, could very well decide the outcome of the election. Trump has recently regained the lead in Pennsylvania, with polls showing him ahead by 0.2%. Pennsylvania has consistently been one of the most competitive states in recent elections, and this year is no different. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls in October, but Trump ultimately won the state. In 2020, Biden led by seven points in Pennsylvania but won by just 1.2%. Trump’s current lead in the state is a strong indicator that he is on track to win Pennsylvania and, by extension, the presidency.
Moving to Iowa, Trump has an eight- to nine-point lead in the polls, and the state is expected to vote solidly Republican once again. In Ohio, Trump is also enjoying a commanding lead, with polls showing him ahead by eight points. Ohio has traditionally been a bellwether state, and Trump’s strong performance here suggests that he is well-positioned to win the state by double digits, as he did in both 2016 and 2020.
As we turn to the Northeast, Harris’s performance is weaker than Biden’s in 2020. In New York, for example, Harris is leading by 13.5 points, but this is a far cry from Biden’s 23-point victory in the Empire State just four years ago. If Harris wins New York by the current polling margin, it would be the worst performance for a Democratic candidate in the state since 1988. New York will likely remain blue, but Harris’s diminished lead is indicative of broader challenges for her campaign.
In New Hampshire and Maine, Harris holds smaller leads than Biden did in 2020. In New Hampshire, she is ahead by 7.4%, but the state is likely to be more competitive than in previous elections. In Maine, Harris leads by 11.7%, but she is unlikely to outperform Biden’s nine-point margin from 2020.
As we move south, Virginia is one of the few bright spots for Harris. She leads by 6.4% in the polls, a decent margin but still less than Biden’s double-digit victory in 2020. Virginia has been trending to the right in recent years, and while it will likely remain blue, Harris’s narrower lead reflects the shifting political landscape.
In North Carolina, Trump holds a 0.6% lead, and most polls indicate that he will win the state once again, just as he did in 2016 and 2020. Georgia is also leaning towards Trump, with the former president holding a 1.5% lead in the most recent Quinnipiac poll. After trailing Harris for a brief period last month, Trump has regained the lead in Georgia, and the state is expected to go red on election night.
Finally, Florida, which has been trending Republican in recent cycles, is solidly in Trump’s corner. Polls show Trump leading by 6.7%, and he is expected to win the state by a margin of 7 to 10 points. Florida, like Texas, is no longer considered a swing state and will likely vote red once again in 2024.
In conclusion, based on current polling data and trends, Donald Trump is poised to win the 2024 presidential election with 296 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris is projected to win 242. As Trump continues to gain ground in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, it’s clear that the momentum is on his side. With just weeks to go before the election, Trump’s path to victory appears increasingly likely.
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