Today, we will be diving deep into the latest polls and providing our predictions for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. With only three weeks remaining until election day, the race is becoming increasingly competitive, and many swing states are still very much in play. These states will ultimately decide the outcome of the election, while several other states are considered safely in the column of one candidate or the other.
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This video will be slightly different from some of the previous election prediction videos I’ve done, as today, I’ll be focusing exclusively on nonpartisan polling. This means that I will not be including any polls from organizations or sources that have a clear political bias, which could skew their results in favor of a particular candidate. Instead, I will be relying solely on data from reputable, nonpartisan pollsters to see if this changes the electoral outlook.
Another point worth mentioning is that I will not be factoring in what many refer to as the "Trump advantage." This term refers to the phenomenon where Donald Trump tends to outperform polling averages in key states, something we saw in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Many analysts believe this occurs due to the socalled "shy Trump voter" effect, where some Trump supporters are reluctant to tell pollsters that they plan to vote for him. However, for the sake of this analysis, I will set aside that assumption and evaluate the polls as they are, without that potential bias.
The purpose of this exercise is to assess the current state of the race based on the available polling data, and to determine whether the outcome would be any different if we rely strictly on nonpartisan sources. With that being said, let's dive in.
Nevada
We begin with Nevada, one of the key battleground states in this election. According to the most recent polling, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a very slim lead over Donald Trump in Nevada, leading by just 0.5 points overall. However, when we remove partisan polling from the equation and focus exclusively on nonpartisan pollsters, the picture changes slightly.
One example is a poll conducted by Morning Consult between October 6th and October 15th, which surveyed 496 likely voters. In this poll, Harris leads Trump by four points. Morning Consult is widely regarded as a nonpartisan source, making this a valuable data point.
Another nonpartisan poll comes from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, which conducted a survey between October 12th and 14th among 838 likely voters. This poll puts Harris and Trump in a dead heat, with both candidates tied at 47%.
A third nonpartisan poll to consider is from Emerson College, conducted between October 5th and October 8th, among 900 likely voters. This poll shows Harris with a narrow onepoint lead, with 49% support compared to Trump’s 48%. Emerson College is another wellrespected nonpartisan pollster, so this result carries weight.
Looking at these results, Nevada remains a tossup, though Harris has a slight edge in most of the nonpartisan polling. Based on this data, we would categorize Nevada as a “tilt” state in favor of Harris, though this could easily change in the final weeks of the campaign.
Arizona
Moving on to Arizona, another crucial swing state, Donald Trump appears to be performing quite well here. In the most recent nonpartisan polling, Trump has established a small but consistent lead over Harris.
For instance, a poll conducted by YouGov between October 11th and October 16th, and sponsored by CBS News, shows Trump leading by three points. In this survey, Trump garners 51% of the vote compared to Harris's 48%.
Meanwhile, Morning Consult’s poll in Arizona, conducted over the same period, has Harris slightly ahead with 49% to Trump’s 48%. However, this onepoint lead is within the margin of error, making the race effectively tied.
A third nonpartisan poll comes from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, which conducted a survey between October 12th and October 14th, among 1,141 likely voters. In this poll, Trump holds a twopoint lead, with 48% of the vote to Harris's 46%.
Based on the nonpartisan polling data, Trump seems to have the upper hand in Arizona, though the race is still close. Given these results, I would classify Arizona as “leaning” towards Trump.
Georgia
Next, we turn to Georgia, a state that flipped blue for the first time in decades during the 2020 election. This year, however, Trump appears to be making a strong comeback.
A poll conducted by ActiveVote between October 1st and October 17th among 400 likely voters shows Trump with a twopoint lead, with 51% of the vote compared to Harris's 49%.
While this poll comes from a lesserknown organization, we also have more established nonpartisan pollsters showing similar results. For example, Insider Advantage conducted a poll between October 14th and October 15th, surveying 800 registered voters. In this poll, Trump leads Harris by two points, 49% to 47%.
Morning Consult’s poll from October 6th to October 15th also shows Trump leading, albeit by a smaller margin. In this survey of 1,200 likely voters, Trump leads by one point, with 49% to Harris's 48%.
Finally, a Redfield & Wilton poll from the same period has the race tied at 47% for each candidate. While this indicates a close race, the overall trend favors Trump. Based on these results, I would categorize Georgia as “leaning” Republican.
North Carolina
North Carolina is another battleground state where Trump appears to have the advantage. According to the latest nonpartisan polling, Trump leads by 0.9 points overall, but some polls show a slightly larger margin.
For example, a Morning Consult poll conducted between October 6th and October 15th among 1,072 likely voters shows Trump leading by one point, with 49% to Harris's 48%.
Similarly, Redfield & Wilton’s poll from October 12th to October 14th, which surveyed 620 likely voters, shows Trump ahead by two points, 48% to 46%.
Another nonpartisan poll from Signal, conducted between October 12th and October 14th among 600 likely voters, shows the race tied at 47% each.
The only poll that has Harris leading is from Quinnipiac University, which shows her ahead by two to three points. However, most of the nonpartisan polling suggests that Trump is slightly ahead in North Carolina. Based on this data, I would classify North Carolina as “leaning” Republican.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has long been considered one of the most important battleground states, and it is likely to play a decisive role in this election as well. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the state by a narrow margin, but the race looks much tighter this time around.
According to the most recent nonpartisan polling, Harris holds a very slight lead in Wisconsin. For example, a poll conducted by the Bullfinch Group between October 5th and October 11th among 600 likely voters shows Harris leading by two points, with 48% to Trump’s 46%.
Another Bullfinch poll conducted later in the month shows Harris with a threepoint lead, 50% to 47%.
However, not all the polls show Harris leading. An RMG Research poll conducted between October 10th and October 16th among 787 likely voters shows Trump leading by one point, 50% to Harris's 49%.
Morning Consult’s poll from October 6th to October 15th also shows a very tight race, with Trump leading by one point, 48% to 47%.
Overall, the nonpartisan polling data shows a very close race in Wisconsin, with Harris holding a slight edge in some polls but Trump leading in others. Given this, I would categorize Wisconsin as “tilting” toward Harris, though it could easily swing the other way.
Michigan
Michigan is another Rust Belt state that will be crucial to the outcome of the election. While Harris is slightly ahead in the overall polling average, the nonpartisan data tells a more complicated story.
For example, a Bullfinch Group poll conducted earlier in the month shows Harris leading by eight points. However, this result appears to be something of an outlier.
Other nonpartisan polls show a much closer race. An RMG Research poll conducted between October 10th and October 16th shows Harris and Trump tied at 48% each.
Similarly, Morning Consult’s poll from October 6th to October 15th, which surveyed 1,665 likely voters, shows Harris leading by two points, 49% to 47%.
Looking at the broader polling trends, it’s clear that Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan, but the race remains competitive. However, there is one factor that could hurt Harris in this state: the Arab American and Jewish American vote.
Given Harris’s stance on the IsraelPalestine conflict, it’s possible that she could lose support from both Arab American and Jewish American voters in Michigan, which could make a difference in such a close race. While polling data suggests that Harris is leading, I’m not convinced that the Democrats will carry Michigan on election day. For the purposes of this analysis, I will tentatively put Michigan in the Democratic column, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins the state.
Pennsylvania
Finally, we turn to Pennsylvania, another mustwin state for the Democrats. Unfortunately for Harris, the polling here is very close, and Trump appears to have the momentum.
According to the latest nonpartisan polls, Trump leads by an average of 1.1 points. A Morning Consult poll conducted between October 6th and October 15th among 1,600 likely voters shows Trump leading by three points, 50% to Harris’s 47%.
Another poll from Emerson College, conducted between October 5th and October 8th, shows Harris leading by one point, 49% to 48%. However, this result is within the margin of error, so the race is essentially tied.
A third nonpartisan poll from Redfield & Wilton, conducted between October 12th and October 14th, shows Trump with a twopoint lead, 50% to Harris’s 48%.
Based on this data, Pennsylvania is still very much a tossup, though Trump appears to have the upper hand at the moment. Given the polling trends, I would classify Pennsylvania as “tilting” towards Trump, though this could change in the final weeks of the campaign.
In conclusion, the nonpartisan polling data shows a very tight race, with both candidates having a realistic path to victory. Harris holds a slight lead in states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump is ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. However, many of these states are still too close to call, and the outcome will likely come down to the final weeks of the campaign.
One thing is clear: this election will be decided by a handful of battleground states, and every vote will count. While Harris has the advantage in some key states, Trump’s strong polling in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona gives him a solid path to victory as well.
With three weeks to go, anything can happen, and we’ll be watching closely to see how the race evolves.
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