Today we delve into the fascinating 2024 presidential race where we finally have a survey that is of great relevance. Recently, the Maris firm published a new study that we are going to analyze in detail. This report focuses on early voters, those citizens who have already cast their vote, which provides us with crucial information about their electoral preferences.
Independent Voters: An Enigma to Solve
In my previous videos I discussed the uncertainty surrounding independent or unaffiliated voters. There is a lot of ambiguity about whether they will lean toward a Democratic-Republican candidate or even support figures like Harris or Trump. However, the most recent data from this survey gives us a clearer picture of their preferences.
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When it comes to independent voters, understanding their leanings can be a significant challenge. So it's essential to look at favorability ratings. Currently, Harris barely leads with her unfavorable ratings slightly outnumbering her favorable ones. It's a narrow but noteworthy margin. In contrast, former President Trump's ratings are in a tougher spot. Her unfavorable ratings are significantly higher with the disparity ranging from 8 to 10 points.
Maris Survey Details
Let's take a closer look at the latest poll conducted by Maris. This study includes favorability ratings for both the presidential and vice presidential candidates. The results are as follows:
- Kamala Harris: 51% favorable 46% unfavorable
- K Walls: 41% favorable 37% desfavorable
- Donald Trump: 40% favorable 58% unfavorable
- Jedy Dance: 33% favorable 4% unfavorable
From this data it is clear that Harris is performing much better in terms of favorability compared to Trump. This trend has persisted throughout the entire election cycle. While Trump has a loyal base of supporters he also faces significant opposition.
Early Voting Strategy
Now let's focus on the early voting data. Recent reports suggest that the Republican Party's strategy of discouraging early and mail-in voting - a tactic promoted by Trump in the last election - is having counterproductive effects. Rather than deterring voters, this strategy appears to have galvanized their participation.
It's important to recognize that while many Republicans are voting early, it doesn't mean they're all backing former President Trump. There's a chance that some of these voters will opt for Harris. Considering the existence of groups of Republican voters who are openly anti-Trump, it wouldn't be surprising if a significant portion of Republicans didn't support Trump and instead preferred Harris or even considered a third-party candidate.
Dynamics of the Democratic Vote
For Democrats, the majority is likely to support Harris, although there is always a small percentage that may lean toward third-party candidates and an even smaller fraction that could show support for Trump. However, the general trend is that Democratic support will concentrate around Harris.
A recent CNN poll also offers insight into this dynamic among likely Democratic voters. 93% of respondents favor Harris while only 5% lean toward Trump. Among independent voters, the numbers are more competitive: 45% support Harris while 41% support Trump. On the other hand, among Republicans, 92% favor Trump and only 7% lean toward Harris.
Changes in Republican Loyalty
I suspect this 7% could be closer to 15% after the election as some Republicans may be reconsidering their stance on Trump. If this turns out to be true it could signal a shift in loyalty among traditional Republican voters. This phenomenon is especially intriguing considering the gender gap and how many Republicans Trump has alienated from his base.
There is a segment of voters who supported Trump in 2020 who may now decide to back another candidate or simply stay home on Election Day. This potential shift is not reflected in poll numbers but could affect overall turnout and voting patterns. Likewise, some Democratic voters are likely to sit out this election out of disillusionment with Harris or the current leadership.
Voters' Decision Moment
Another survey explored the moment when voters decided their choice This data does not specify who they support but when they made a decision Of all respondents, 32% decided their vote when Biden was elected, which could indicate loyalty to his administration or a firm decision to vote differently this time around During Biden's first term, 99% made their decision while 35% decided when Trump became the Republican candidate Only 19% made up their mind when Harris took office The remaining 5% decided in the last few weeks or days
Digging deeper, 37% of Republicans made their decision when Biden took office, perhaps looking for a change. 11% made up their minds the moment Trump became the Republican nominee, while 4% made their decision when Harris replaced Biden, and the remaining 3% made up their minds at the last minute.
Democrats showed similar patterns 33% decided their vote when Biden was elected 6% during his first term 27% when Trump entered the race and 31% decided when Harris took office with 3% deciding in the last few days
Independents and their Decisions
Independents reveal particularly interesting patterns 14% made their decision when Biden was elected, 33% during his term and 32% when Trump announced his campaign This moment could play against Trump if these independents decide against him Additionally, 23% made a decision when Harris replaced Biden and 18% decided in recent weeks, which could indicate dissatisfaction with Trump's return
This last-minute decision among independents could benefit Harris as many already have formed opinions about Trump based on his previous presidency. Some may have waited until the end to see if Harris would offer a fresh perspective.
However, it can also be argued that as a member of the current administration, Harris represents continuity from Biden. Those who want real change might lean toward Trump. However, independent voters are often swayed by specific qualities of candidates and many have expressed disapproval of both Biden and Trump in the past, indicating that they might support Harris as a new face on the ticket.
Recent Trends in Surveys
If we look at recent polls, the data initially indicated that Harris was performing well. However, in the last week we have seen a sudden change with support for Trump increasing by four to five points. Curiously, there have been no major events or surprises to justify such a change. After the debate, many considered that Harris performed better than Trump, although she only saw a modest increase in her support.
So what explains this shift? Two factors could be at play. First, there's a wave of less reliable polls that clearly favor Trump, skewing the polling averages. We're seeing the same polls repeated, many of them from sources with a right-wing bias, which is inflating Trump's numbers in the aggregate results. Second, the media benefits from framing this as a close race, as this encourages viewers to tune in on election night, heightening the suspense.
Key States in the Election
In the quest to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory, Pennsylvania has become a critical state. Harris has a solid chance if she can maintain her support among key demographic groups and retain the momentum of early voting. For Trump, the need to regain ground in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia is imperative. If he manages to win these states along with Pennsylvania, he will reach the magic number of 270, thus securing his victory.
The election has come down to a handful of battleground states where early voting trends give us clues as to how the race could play out. When we break down the demographics we see that women who are generally
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