Early in-person voting in North Carolina just kicked off yesterday, and it set a new record, echoing Georgia's performance a few days earlier. This trend may continue in North Carolina, but for now, it’s a positive sign for voter turnout. It appears we may be shifting away from the pandemic-era reliance on mail-in ballots, returning to a pattern seen pre-pandemic. Traditionally, Democrats have leaned toward early in-person voting, while Republicans favored mail-in voting. This change could benefit Democrats if this pattern holds.
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The early numbers out of North Carolina are encouraging for Democrats. On the first day, 36.3% of early voters were registered Democrats, compared to 34.7% Republicans, and 29% Independents. A comparison with the previous day (October 16th) shows that Democrats slightly decreased, while Republican numbers grew. Despite this, Democratic turnout remains relatively stable, with only minor shifts between Independents and Republicans.
In the Nowcast model for North Carolina, turnout jumped significantly after in-person voting began, from 0.88% to 5.58%. Given that 58% of the total vote in the 2022 election came from early voting, we can expect these numbers to continue rising. Democrats are currently leading in this model, reflecting a positive start, even though North Carolina remains a competitive battleground state.
Comparing this to Georgia paints a different picture. In Georgia, early voting has been more stagnant, and Republicans appear to be in a stronger position. Democratic strongholds like Fulton County are performing well, but counties like Gwinnett are underperforming, with turnout rates much lower than needed to give Democrats a competitive edge. Smaller, mid-sized counties such as Richmond and Chatham are also falling behind, creating concerns for Democrats.
In contrast, Republican counties in Georgia are seeing higher turnout rates, with some outperforming the statewide average. For instance, Forsyth and Hall counties are showing strong Republican turnout, which could widen the gap further as voting progresses.
As we approach the weekend, turnout could change in both states. Historically, Republican voters, particularly retirees, are more likely to vote early in rural areas, which could boost their numbers. For Democrats, the key will be to see if underperforming counties like Gwinnett pick up momentum. Otherwise, Georgia may remain a tough state for Democrats to win.
In conclusion, North Carolina’s early voting trends favor Democrats so far, while Georgia remains more challenging for them. As more states begin in-person early voting next week, the broader national picture will become clearer, providing insights into voter behavior across multiple key battlegrounds.
Early voting in North Carolina started strong, with the state breaking records just days after Georgia's own record-breaking start. This surge signals a shift from the pandemic-era focus on mail-in ballots, where Democrats generally favored in-person early voting while Republicans leaned towards mail-in options. If the trend of increased in-person early voting continues, it could favor the Democrats, as pre-pandemic data suggest.
On the first day in North Carolina, Democrats held a slight advantage with 36.3% of the votes, compared to 34.7% for Republicans. Independents made up 29% of the early votes, marking a notable share. Although there was a slight decline for Democrats compared to the previous day, the overall early voting trends remained steady for them, while Republicans showed an increase from 27.1% to 33.4%.
Historically, early voting has played a significant role in North Carolina, with 58% of the total 2022 vote being cast during the early voting period. Current data shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 5.58% turnout compared to 0.88% the day before. Using a nowcast model—reflecting current data rather than future predictions—Democrats are faring better in the state. This is a positive sign for Democrats, especially in a battleground state like North Carolina.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, the early voting trends are not as favorable for Democrats. The numbers remain stagnant, and Republicans appear to have an early edge. In key Democratic counties like Fulton and Cobb, turnout is around the state average, while in Gwinnett, a crucial county for Democrats, turnout lags at 11%, posing a significant challenge. Mid-sized counties like Richmond and Chatham are also underperforming compared to the statewide average.
On the Republican side, counties like Forsyth, Cherokee, and Hall are outperforming the state average, with Forsyth showing particularly strong numbers. This surge in Republican turnout in key counties gives them a strong early advantage. However, this could shift after the weekend when more votes are expected to come in, especially from Democratic-leaning areas.
In summary, early voting in North Carolina shows promising signs for Democrats, but in Georgia, the situation is more favorable for Republicans, at least in these early stages. The upcoming weekend will be crucial in determining whether Democrats can catch up in key counties.
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