The presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is rapidly approaching. With just one month remaining until voters head to the polls in November, it's time to update the electoral map and forecast how the race might unfold. The Democratic and Republican National Conventions have concluded, and now the candidates are making their final pitches to the American electorate. Additionally, third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has officially dropped out of the race and has thrown his support behind Trump, a significant development that could shift voter dynamics, particularly among independent and anti-establishment voters.
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At this point in the election cycle, it’s crucial to examine the path to the all-important 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. In this analysis, we'll start by examining the "solid" states for both Harris and Trump, followed by the "likely" states, and then move into the battleground or "lean" states that will ultimately decide the election. Given that RFK Jr.'s exit has changed the calculus somewhat, we’ll need to look closely at where his supporters might shift, as well as the overall national mood as we head into the final stretch.
Solid States for Kamala Harris
Starting with the solid blue states, these are states where Harris is expected to win by at least 15 percentage points. The West Coast will continue to be a stronghold for Democrats, but with a caveat: Washington and California are considered safe, while neighboring Oregon has become somewhat more competitive in recent years. Oregon’s gubernatorial race in 2022 was unusually close, and Republicans have made inroads in some areas, though Harris remains the clear favorite there.
As for the rest of Harris' solid states, we can confidently count Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the District of Columbia in her column. These states have consistently leaned heavily Democratic, and no major developments suggest a change in 2024. Additionally, the first congressional district of Maine, which has a more urban and liberal electorate, will also be safely in Harris' corner. This gives her an initial solid vote count of 109 electoral votes.
Solid States for Donald Trump
Trump, on the other hand, begins with a much longer list of solidly red states, states that he won by significant margins in either 2016, 2020, or both. These states include much of the Mountain West and South: Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and all of Nebraska except for the second congressional district. In addition, Trump can count on Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and the second district of Maine. Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold, also falls into this category.
This puts Trump ahead of Harris right from the outset, with 126 solid electoral votes compared to Harris' 109. This early lead doesn’t necessarily indicate overall strength, as the real battle will unfold in the more competitive states, but it shows that Trump's base remains strong and loyal in the parts of the country where Republicans dominate.
Likely States for Harris
Moving on to the "likely" states, these are states where Harris or Trump is expected to win by a margin of 7 to 15 percentage points. These are still relatively safe, though not quite as secure as the solid states. Starting with Harris, we can include Oregon in this category. While Oregon has generally been seen as reliably Democratic, the close gubernatorial race in 2022 and ongoing shifts in certain regions make it less of a sure thing than California or Washington.
Colorado, a state that Joe Biden won by nearly 14 points in 2020, also fits into the "likely" category. While it remains a Democratic-leaning state, Harris is not expected to replicate Biden's margins, as the state has trended slightly more competitive. The best she can hope for is an 8 or 9-point win here, still solid but less overwhelming.
Next, we have Minnesota. This state has a deep Democratic tradition, though it has become more competitive in recent elections. Trump came within two points of flipping Minnesota in 2016, and the Rust Belt overall has shifted rightward in recent years. However, Minnesota’s Democratic Governor Tim Walz is on the ticket as Harris' running mate, giving her a boost in this state. Polling currently shows Harris leading by about 7 to 8 points, so while it’s not completely out of reach for Republicans, it remains in the likely Democratic column.
Illinois is another state that falls into the likely category. Although it is traditionally Democratic, there has been a gradual shift to the right in recent elections, particularly in more rural areas. However, the heavily Democratic population centers in Chicago and its suburbs should still give Harris a comfortable, if reduced, margin of victory here. Illinois has typically been a stronghold for Democrats, but the margin may not reach the 15-point threshold this time around.
Up in the Northeast, New York is also categorized as "likely." This will mark the first time since 1988 that Democrats do not win the Empire State by a solid margin. The state has been plagued by several political scandals in recent years, including the resignation of former Governor Andrew Cuomo and ongoing dissatisfaction with Governor Kathy Hochul. Additionally, New York City Mayor Eric Adams has struggled with his popularity, which could affect turnout in one of the state’s most important Democratic strongholds.
Rounding out the list of likely states for Harris are New Jersey and Delaware. New Jersey has also faced political turmoil, with Senator Bob Menendez recently being forced out after multiple bribery charges. While the state remains Democratic, scandals like these make it less of a lock for the party than in previous elections. Delaware, Biden’s home state, is also likely blue, though not quite as liberal as its neighbors Maryland and Connecticut.
With the solid and likely states filled in, Harris crosses the 200 electoral vote threshold, reaching 211 electoral votes in total.
Likely States for Trump
Turning now to the likely states for Trump, Iowa and Ohio are at the top of the list. These two states have moved solidly into the Republican column in recent years, largely due to Trump's influence. In 2012, Barack Obama carried both states, but just four years later, Trump won Iowa by nearly double digits and Ohio by 8 points. These states, once bellwethers that voted for the eventual winner in nearly every election, have become reliably Republican, though the margins may not reach the 15-point level. Trump is still expected to win both states comfortably by 7 to 10 points.
Texas, the largest of the likely red states, remains an important part of Trump's electoral map. Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1976, and despite predictions of a "blue wave" in the state, Republicans have continued to win here by solid margins. Trump will likely carry Texas by around 10 points, though the growing Democratic strength in urban areas like Houston, Dallas, and Austin keeps the state from being categorized as solid red.
Florida is another state that was once considered a swing state but has moved firmly into the Republican camp. Trump won Florida by just one point in 2016, but his margin increased to 3.4 points in 2020. Florida’s political shift was further cemented in 2022 when Republican Governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected by a staggering 20-point margin. This year, Trump is expected to win Florida by 7 to 10 points, firmly placing it in the likely red column.
With the likely states now accounted for, Trump takes the lead again, reaching 219 electoral votes to Harris' 211. The election is shaping up to be a competitive one, with both candidates needing to secure key battleground states to win.
Lean States for Harris
The lean states are those where the margin of victory is expected to be between 2 and 7 points, making them more competitive but still favoring one candidate. For Harris, the first lean state is New Mexico. While the state has a large Hispanic population and has generally leaned Democratic, recent trends suggest a closer race. Hispanic voters have been shifting away from the Democratic Party in some areas, which makes New Mexico more competitive than neighboring Colorado. Still, Harris is expected to win here by around 5 to 6 points.
New Hampshire is another lean blue state. Trump came close to winning New Hampshire in 2016, losing by less than half a percentage point. While Biden won the state by a larger margin in 2020, the race remains competitive. Harris is expected to carry the state by 2 to 4 points, but it will be one to watch as polling tightens.
Maine’s statewide vote (excluding the first district) is also expected to lean Democratic. Clinton won the state by just over two points in 2016, while Biden expanded the margin to nearly 10 points in 2020. Harris will likely fall somewhere in between, making it a lean state on the map. Additionally, the second district of Nebraska, which Biden won by seven points in 2020, is also expected to go to Harris, though by a smaller margin.
Finally, we have Virginia, a state that has been moving back to the right in recent years after a decade of Democratic dominance.
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