Today, we're diving into the most recent polling data that suggests Donald Trump is leading in every critical swing state, putting him on track to defeat Kamala Harris in the upcoming election next month. We’ll examine the 2024 electoral map based on the latest polls from every state, providing a detailed analysis of how the map will fill in with red and blue on Election Night.
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We'll begin our analysis at 7:00 PM Eastern Time when voting concludes in six states across the eastern United States. These states collectively hold 60 electoral votes, making them vital to the overall electoral strategy.
Among these states, Georgia stands out as the most competitive. This is noteworthy, as Georgia was a state that Joe Biden won in the 2020 election, a result that shocked many observers. However, current polling indicates that Donald Trump is poised to reclaim Georgia by a significant margin of five points, according to a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac, which is known for being one of the more left-leaning polling organizations.
Currently, Trump maintains an average lead of 1.55% across various polls, indicating a substantial shift in voter sentiment since Biden’s narrow victory in 2020. There's a strong consensus that Trump's lead reflects a broader trend, as he has consistently led in Georgia's polling averages since last month. Therefore, based on the current landscape, we will designate Georgia as “lean red” on our electoral map.
Next, we turn our attention to Virginia. Harris's performance in this state has been lackluster, as she currently leads by a mere 3% according to the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll, a polling firm known for its accuracy. On average, Harris is ahead by 4.8%, which is a stark contrast to Biden's 10-point margin of victory in the state during the last election.
As the race intensifies, Virginia is proving to be more competitive than anticipated. Trump’s chance of winning here is plausible, considering no Republican has carried Virginia since 2004. For now, we will categorize Virginia as “lean blue” on our map due to Harris's narrow lead, though it remains highly competitive.
As we move further south, the remaining states in this initial voting window are expected to be solidly in favor of one candidate or the other. Trump is expected to easily secure victories in Indiana, Kentucky, and South Carolina, while Harris will comfortably win in Vermont. After these first poll closings, Trump will hold a total of 44 electoral votes compared to Harris's 16.
At 7:30 PM, voting will wrap up in three additional states. North Carolina emerges as the most competitive of the trio. Trump won this state narrowly in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, and recent polling suggests he is on track to win it again. The latest Emerson College poll indicates that Trump holds a slim one-point lead, and he has led in all five of the most recent polls conducted in North Carolina.
In total, there are 14 new polls from this state, with Harris only leading in two of them, indicating a significant decline in Democratic support compared to Biden's performance four years ago. Given that Hillary Clinton also had a lead in North Carolina at this point in 2016, Trump’s prospects of winning this state appear strong. Therefore, we will label North Carolina as “tilt red” on our map.
Next, we look at Ohio, where Trump enjoys a 6% lead in the most recent poll. On average, he is ahead by eight points. Historically, polling in Ohio tends to underestimate Trump’s support, as evidenced by the 2020 and 2016 elections. At this point in 2020, Biden was believed to have a shot at winning Ohio, yet he ultimately lost the state by nearly ten points.
With the current trend indicating a potential 10-point victory for Trump, we will designate Ohio as “lean red” on our electoral map. West Virginia, another reliable stronghold for Republicans, will undoubtedly be won by Trump with a solid margin.
As we progress to 8:00 PM, voting will conclude in 16 states along with the District of Columbia. These states combined account for 171 electoral votes, marking the largest batch of poll closings on Election Night.
Most of these states are expected to show solid results for one candidate. Trump will likely secure decisive victories in the southern states of Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama, thereby extending his lead. In contrast, Harris is anticipated to carry Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the District of Columbia with solid margins.
The Competitive Four: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Florida,
Among the 16 states closing at 8 PM, four remain highly competitive and will significantly influence the outcome: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Florida.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most critical state in the election. Historical trends suggest that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania is likely to secure the presidency. According to the latest polling, Trump and Harris are currently tied in an Emerson College poll. In contrast, a previous Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump leading by 3%. This group has a solid track record of accurately predicting Trump’s victories, particularly in 2016.
In that election, Hillary Clinton led Pennsylvania by 7.5 percentage points in the polls but ultimately lost the state. Harris currently holds no lead in Pennsylvania, which has remained competitive over the past few months. Given Trump’s previous narrow loss in 2020 and his current polling strength, we will categorize Pennsylvania as “lean red” on our electoral map.
Moving on to New Hampshire, the latest polling indicates that Kamala Harris is on track to win the Granite State by approximately 7%. While this figure may overestimate her support, it’s enough to categorize New Hampshire as “likely blue” on our map.
In Maine, the polls indicate a complex landscape. Harris leads by 9% statewide, and in the first congressional district, she holds an impressive 26% lead. However, in the second district, Trump is ahead by 7%. Therefore, overall, Maine will be marked as “likely blue” with the first district solidly blue, while the second district tilts red.
Florida, once considered a battleground state, shows Trump dominating in the most recent poll, leading by 5%. Given Trump's historical underestimation in previous elections, there’s a strong likelihood he could win Florida by 10 points or more. This state, which has leaned Republican in recent years, will also be categorized as “lean red.”
At 8:30 PM, voting will conclude in Arkansas, which is solidly red. Then at 9:00 PM, voting will end in 15 additional states, contributing a total of 163 electoral votes to the evening’s tally. Trump will likely win states like Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (except for its second district), Kansas, and Louisiana by margins exceeding 15 percentage points.
Among the competitive states, Arizona stands out. Trump leads by 1% in the most recent poll from Insider Advantage, and another Emerson College poll from last week shows him ahead by 3%. Out of the 11 most recent polls conducted in Arizona, Trump has a lead in eight while Harris has only managed to lead in three. Given that Trump lost Arizona narrowly in 2020, it appears he is on track to win it back, so we will designate it as “tilt red” on our map.
In Colorado, however, the polling shows Democrats maintaining a healthy lead of 11 points. Therefore, Colorado will be categorized as “likely blue.”
In New Mexico, the latest survey indicates Harris is leading by a slim margin of just six points—a significant decline from Biden’s double-digit victory in 2020. This suggests a shift in voter sentiment, and as a result, we will classify New Mexico as “lean Democratic.”
In Texas, Trump is leading by five points according to the latest Emerson College poll. While this may seem understated, the overall trend suggests he could win the Lone Star State by nearly double digits. Thus, we’ll label Texas as “lean red” based on current polling data.
As we move into the Midwest, this region is likely to prove decisive in the election. Starting with Minnesota, Harris holds a precarious three-point lead in the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll. This narrow margin of victory is concerning, especially considering she is running alongside Tim Walz, the state’s governor. In 2020, Biden won Minnesota by a seven-point margin, so the current polling indicates trouble for Harris, prompting us to classify Minnesota as “tilt blue.”
In Iowa, Trump is leading by 4% in the most recent poll, likely underestimating his support. Similar to Ohio, it is projected that he could win Iowa by nearly 10 points, so we will categorize it as “lean red.”
In Nebraska’s second congressional district, Harris currently leads by nine points, allowing us to classify this area as “likely blue” for the map.
Lastly, we turn our attention to Wisconsin and Michigan—two of the most crucial battleground states in the election. Trump is leading by a small margin in both states, and considering the Republican gains made during the midterms, he has a strong chance of winning these states again.
In Wisconsin, the most recent poll shows Trump ahead by 1%, prompting us to categorize it as “tilt red.” Meanwhile, Michigan, where Trump leads by 2% in the latest polling, will also be classified as “tilt red” on the map.
In conclusion, based on the current polling data and electoral trends, Donald Trump is on track to secure 302 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris will end the night with 236 electoral votes. Of course, polls can change, but this projection offers a clear path to victory for Trump in the 2024 election. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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