Today, we are going to dive into an in-depth analysis of the most recent polling data and my personal predictions for the 2024 presidential election. The states we will be discussing are among the most highly contested in the upcoming election, where both major candidates—former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris—are vying for crucial electoral votes. We will examine these battleground states in detail, focusing on polling trends, past electoral history, and my forecast based on the current state of the race.
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As we know, some states are more predictable than others. For example, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia have shown a general trend over the years that gives us a fair idea of where they are headed. While I have categorized these states as either "lean Democrat" or "tilt Democrat," it’s important to note that they are not completely solid for either party yet. There’s still room for movement, but for the most part, we can predict that they will vote in the direction indicated by the polling data.
Now, let’s turn our attention to the truly competitive battleground states that will ultimately decide the outcome of the election: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. These states have been fiercely contested in recent elections and are expected to be just as critical in 2024. In each of these states, the margin between the two candidates is razor-thin, and even slight shifts in voter turnout or opinion could drastically change the result.
Let’s begin with the state of Arizona. Arizona has been a key battleground in recent elections, and 2024 is no different. The state has historically leaned Republican, but in 2020, Joe Biden managed to flip it blue for the first time in decades. In the 2024 race, the contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is extremely tight, with most polls showing Trump with a small lead over Harris.
In the latest polling data, Trump leads Harris by several points in most surveys. The only exception is a Morning Consult poll conducted between October 6th and October 15th, which sampled 653 likely voters. This poll gives Harris a slim lead of 49% to Trump’s 48%, putting her ahead by just one percentage point. However, all other recent polls indicate that Trump is ahead by anywhere from two to five points.
When we take all the polls into consideration, Trump leads Harris in Arizona by an average of 1.6%. It’s worth noting that some of these polls, such as those conducted by Republican-leaning groups like the Trafalgar Group and Faio Lee Moffen, might slightly skew the average in Trump’s favor. However, even if we adjust for this potential bias, the difference is minimal—perhaps reducing Trump’s lead by no more than 0.6%. The bottom line is that Trump maintains a lead of about one point, which is consistent with Arizona’s recent voting patterns.
Given the close margin and considering Arizona’s political history, I predict that Trump will win the state, though it will be by a narrow margin. Arizona has been trending more purple in recent years, but at this point, it seems like Trump is favored to carry the state.
Next, we move on to Wisconsin, another critical swing state. In 2020, Wisconsin was one of the states that flipped from Trump to Biden, contributing to Biden’s overall victory. In 2024, the race in Wisconsin is shaping up to be just as close, if not closer.
According to the most recent polls, Harris holds a very slight lead in Wisconsin. As of now, she is ahead by just 0.6%, which is a razor-thin margin. While some earlier polls had shown Harris with a more comfortable lead, the race has tightened considerably in recent weeks. In fact, most of the latest polls show Trump either tied with Harris or slightly ahead by one point. For instance, a poll conducted by Red Children and Voting Strategies between October 12th and 14th, which surveyed 641 likely voters, shows Harris leading by 1%. However, the majority of the other polls suggest that Trump is either tied with or leading Harris by small margins.
Given Wisconsin’s history of tight races and the tendency for polling underestimations in previous elections, particularly in 2016 and 2020, I believe Wisconsin is likely to swing back to Trump in 2024. The polling data may show a slight lead for Harris, but the trend lines indicate that Trump has momentum, and I expect him to win Wisconsin by a narrow margin.
The next state on our list is Michigan. Like Wisconsin, Michigan was a key state in 2020 that helped propel Biden to victory. In 2024, Michigan is once again a battleground, and the race between Harris and Trump is extremely close.
As of now, Harris leads Trump in Michigan by an average of 0.6 points, similar to her margin in Wisconsin. Polling data shows that Harris is either tied with Trump or ahead by as much as two points, depending on the poll. For example, one survey conducted by Mitchell Research and Communications on October 14th, which sampled 589 likely voters, shows Trump with a one-point lead over Harris. However, other polls taken around the same time show Harris ahead by one or two points.
The race in Michigan is essentially a toss-up, but if we look at the 2020 election as a guide, there is reason for concern for the Harris campaign. In 2020, Biden was leading in Michigan by a much larger margin—around 8-9 points in most polls—but ended up winning by only a small margin. If we apply that same pattern to 2024, where Harris’s lead is much smaller than Biden’s was, it seems likely that Trump could narrowly win Michigan this time around. Therefore, I am putting Michigan in the “Tilt Red” column for now.
Pennsylvania is another battleground state that has been pivotal in recent elections. In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin, and the state is expected to be just as competitive in 2024. Currently, the polling data shows a close race between Harris and Trump, with Harris holding a very slim lead.
According to the latest polls, Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 0.6 points, which is the same margin she holds in Michigan and Wisconsin. In some polls, Harris is ahead by as much as four points, while in others, the race is tied or Trump is ahead by one or two points. For example, recent polls conducted in early October show Trump leading Harris by one or two points, while others show Harris ahead by a similar margin.
As with Wisconsin and Michigan, Pennsylvania’s polling margins are razor-thin, and the state’s electoral history suggests that anything can happen. In 2020, Biden was leading in Pennsylvania by a larger margin than Harris is now, yet he only narrowly won the state. Given the closeness of the race and the potential for polling errors, I am predicting that Pennsylvania will tilt red in 2024, with Trump narrowly winning the state.
Now, let’s move on to Nevada, another crucial battleground state. In Nevada, Harris has a slight lead in the most recent polls, but the race remains extremely close. Some polls show Harris ahead by as much as four points, while others show her tied with Trump or even trailing him by a few points.
In one of the most recent polls, conducted by a conservative-leaning group, Harris is ahead by just one point. However, older polls from earlier in the campaign show Trump leading by five or six points. The question is whether these older polls are more reflective of the actual state of the race, or whether Harris has gained ground in recent weeks.
In 2020, Biden was leading in Nevada by about five points in most polls, but he ended up winning the state by a much smaller margin. If the same pattern holds in 2024, Harris’s current lead may not be enough to secure a victory. Therefore, I am predicting that Nevada will ultimately go to Trump, though it will be by a very narrow margin.
Next, we turn to North Carolina, another key battleground state. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by a small margin, and the state is expected to be just as competitive in 2024. As of now, Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by an average of 0.5 points, though some polls show the race as even or Harris slightly ahead.
For example, a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University shows Harris ahead by three points, but most other polls show Trump with a small lead. Given North Carolina’s recent voting history and the current polling data, I believe Trump is likely to win the state again in 2024, though it will be by a small margin.
Finally, we arrive at Georgia, a state that has become one of the most competitive in recent years. In 2020, Biden won Georgia by a narrow margin, flipping the state blue for the first time in decades. In 2024, however, Trump is currently leading Harris by an average of 1.7 points.
Polling data from mid-October shows Trump ahead by as much as six or seven points in some surveys, though other polls show the race as closer. For example, the CED Advantage poll, conducted between October 14th and 15th, shows Trump leading by two points, while the Morning Consult poll shows Trump ahead by one point. Overall, Trump is maintaining a small but consistent lead in Georgia.
Given the state’s recent voting history and the current polling data, I believe Trump will win Georgia in 2024, though it will be by a narrow margin.
In conclusion, the 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history, with several key battleground states likely to decide the outcome. Based on the current polling data and past electoral history, I am predicting that Donald Trump will win Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, though most of these victories will be by narrow margins. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is likely to hold onto a slim lead in a few key states, but the overall electoral map currently favors Trump.
Of course, these predictions are based on the most recent data, and things could change as the campaign progresses. However, as of now, Trump is in a strong position to win many of the key battleground states and secure victory in the 2024 presidential election.
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