Today, we’re going to look at the latest poll data and get into some electoral map analysis based on recent numbers. To do this, we’re checking out the latest CBS News/YouGov poll. YouGov has a strong reputation for accurate polling, as you’ll see in their rankings on FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, where they score near the top. So, today, we’ll look at what CBS News/YouGov has found and analyze how it might play out in terms of electoral votes. This analysis will give us a snapshot of where the race stands if things go as CBS’s numbers suggest.
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First, let’s break down the poll numbers from key battleground states. According to CBS News, Arizona shows Kamala Harris polling at 48% and Donald Trump at 50%. In Georgia, the numbers are just as tight, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 50%. Nevada is showing an even closer race with both candidates polling at 49%. Over in North Carolina, Harris is at 48%, while Trump is at 50%. Now, when we look at Michigan, it’s showing a dead heat at 50% for Harris and 48% for Trump. Pennsylvania’s numbers are incredibly close, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%. Finally, Wisconsin has both candidates tied at 49%.
All of these numbers make one thing very clear: the race is close. But remember, these numbers reflect a margin of error of about four points, meaning each state could realistically go either way. Most of the time, polls will have a margin of error of around three points, which is the average across different polling organizations. So when you see polls that show a slight edge for either Trump or Harris, keep in mind that it’s still too close to definitively call. Even if one candidate shows a slight lead—like Harris at 49% or Trump at 48%—the real takeaway is that the race is in a virtual tie.
Now, for argument's sake, let’s say the election results match exactly what CBS is showing us here. But before we move on to look at the electoral map with this data, it’s worth mentioning something crucial about pollsters. In recent weeks, we’ve seen significant shifts in the polls. Some pollsters showed a swing where Trump gained a three- or four-point advantage. That swing took him from being slightly behind to either narrowly leading or just barely behind. In some cases, he was ahead by less than a percentage point, indicating just how close this race is. But you’re also going to notice that as we get closer to the election, prominent pollsters—such as The New York Times, Siena College, CBS News, and YouGov—will work to get their numbers as close to the actual outcome as possible. Why? Because accuracy on Election Day helps cement their reputations for future elections. Pollsters want to be able to say, “We got it right,” because it boosts their credibility and business. Accuracy is critical for them, especially in the final days leading up to the election, so watch for some potentially different numbers as we get closer.
So, with that context in mind, let’s move over to our electoral map and start filling in the information based on the CBS poll. According to their latest data, Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris has the edge in Michigan and Pennsylvania. When we translate these numbers to electoral votes, we’d be looking at Harris with 260 and Trump with 262. Of course, you need 270 to win, so this means the race would hinge on two key states: Wisconsin and Nevada.
Now, why are Wisconsin and Nevada so important? Here’s the scenario. For Trump to secure a win, he would need Wisconsin. Let’s say Trump takes Nevada—that would put him at 268 electoral votes. But even then, he’d still need Wisconsin to hit the 270 mark. The same logic applies for Harris. If she wins Nevada, she’d have 266, meaning she, too, would still need Wisconsin to cross the 270 threshold. This makes Wisconsin a true battleground state for 2024. It’s likely the state that will determine the final outcome.
Harris has a strategic advantage here: if she wins both Michigan and Pennsylvania, that forms a crucial block often called the “blue wall.” States in the blue wall tend to vote together, so if Harris secures Michigan and Pennsylvania, she stands a strong chance of also winning Wisconsin. If that happens, she reaches 270 electoral votes, clinching the presidency. Trump would, of course, need to break that blue wall by winning Wisconsin, which is still possible, but Harris may have a slight edge given historical voting patterns.
Now, while we focus here on the CBS News poll, remember that more polls will come out in the days ahead. As we see new data, I’ll keep analyzing these battleground states. It’s important to remember that national polls aren’t as significant in a presidential race because they don’t account for the electoral college. While a New York Times/Siena poll might show a national tie, that’s somewhat irrelevant. Presidential elections are won state by state, and it’s the battlegrounds that matter. National polls can show momentum, sure, but they don’t necessarily indicate who’s likely to win.
Another aspect worth discussing is the record-breaking turnout in some states. Early voting has reached unprecedented levels. For instance, we’re seeing incredibly high numbers in Georgia and North Carolina. With early votes alone topping 43 million across the U.S., this election could break records for turnout. And with that comes an important question: who benefits from a surge in voter turnout? Historically, higher turnout tends to benefit challengers rather than incumbents. But this race is unique: former President Trump is running as a candidate after previously losing the election, and Vice President Harris, part of the current administration, could also be considered an incumbent. In many ways, it’s hard to determine who has the traditional “challenger” advantage.
In this unusual setup, we might see Harris benefit from a surge in voter turnout. Because she’s never been president, she has that fresh, challenger appeal. In contrast, voters already know Trump’s policies and governing style from his previous term. Typically, undecided or swing voters who turn out in high numbers are more likely to support a candidate they see as offering something different. This could make higher turnout a potential boost for Harris.
But with Trump also being a highly recognized candidate, it’s hard to say if he’ll face the usual disadvantages that come with incumbency. Given his prior time in office, he may still retain enough support to balance out the effects of increased turnout. Whether the surge in voters across battleground states will lean toward Harris or Trump remains one of the key questions heading into Election Day.
All right, that’s the breakdown for today’s poll analysis and electoral map preview. As I mentioned earlier, I’ve done individual state breakdowns in previous videos, so if you’re interested, go back and check out those episodes. I’ll have some links at the end of this video for easy access.
And before we wrap up, remember: polls don’t vote, people do. No matter what the polls say, it’s the actual voter turnout on Election Day that will decide the outcome. If this analysis interests you and you want to stay updated, make sure you’re subscribed to the channel with notifications turned on.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments below. Do you think these battleground states will shift as more polls come out? And what do you make of this historic turnout? Will it give an edge to Trump or Harris? Let’s get the conversation started, and I’ll see you in the next one. Thanks for watching!
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