Today we’re diving into the latest in the presidential race. We’ll be reviewing the CBS News/YouGov poll, which ranks high in accuracy according to 538’s pollster ratings. After examining the poll results, we'll use the electoral map to see where things currently stand based on this polling data.
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Alright, let’s jump into the poll. Here’s what the numbers look like:
- Arizona: Harris at 48%, Trump at 50%
- Georgia: Harris at 49%, Trump at 50%
- Nevada: Harris at 49%, Trump at 49%
- North Carolina: Harris at 48%, Trump at 50%
- Michigan: Harris at 50%, Trump at 48%
- Pennsylvania: Harris at 49%, Trump at 48%
- Wisconsin: Harris at 49%, Trump at 49%
Now, these numbers are very close. With a margin of error of four points, any of these states could realistically go either way. Most polls have a margin of error around three points, so even if one candidate appears to be leading by a couple of points, the results are essentially a tie within that margin. This makes it too close to call, but it does give an indication of where each candidate stands.
Let's break it down on the electoral map. If the election were to follow the CBS News poll data exactly, here’s how it would look:
- Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
- Harris is leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
This would put Harris at 260 electoral votes and Trump at 262—both close to the 270 needed to win. Now, the remaining states are Wisconsin and Nevada. Wisconsin becomes pivotal in this scenario because:
1. If Trump wins Nevada, he’s at 268, so he still needs Wisconsin.
2. If Harris wins Nevada, she’s at 266 and also still needs Wisconsin.
So, Wisconsin holds the key here. The advantage Harris has is that, historically, the "Blue Wall" (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) often votes as a bloc. If she wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s likely she’ll win Wisconsin too, securing her the presidency with 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, if Trump wins Wisconsin, he’d reach 272 electoral votes and win.
One more point on polling—especially now, with pollsters becoming more accurate as Election Day nears. Polling companies want to ensure they get it right for credibility and future work, which is why we may see some shifts in these numbers soon.
This is why I’m focused on battleground state polling rather than national numbers, which don't decide the election. National polls may show trends, but only the state-level numbers shape the Electoral College outcome.
If you’re interested, check out some of my other videos where I go into more depth on individual states. In places like Georgia and North Carolina, voter turnout has been breaking records, which could hint at how things will play out on Election Day.
Now, here’s an interesting dynamic: we have an incumbent administration, but Kamala Harris, as vice president, could still be seen as a challenger because she hasn’t served as president. Typically, a surge in voter turnout benefits the challenger over the incumbent. Given this, Harris may gain an edge if voting surges, as people may be inclined to support a new face.
But that’s just one take! I’d love to know what you think, so let me know in the comments. And remember, polls don’t vote—people do! So make sure you get out and vote. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next one!
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