Today, we’re going to dive into the details and analyze whether these developments are more likely to benefit Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. While we can’t say for certain yet, we can make some educated guesses based on past trends and the data we have right now. That’s what we’ll be focusing on in this video.
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Let’s begin by looking at Wisconsin. First, it’s important to note that Wisconsin does not list party affiliation when tracking absentee ballots. This means we won’t see whether Democrats or Republicans are requesting and returning ballots; instead, we’ll focus on overall numbers. As of now, 555,000 ballots have been sent out statewide, and an impressive 44% have already been returned. That’s a strong return rate, indicating high voter engagement through absentee ballots in Wisconsin.
Now, it’s worth remembering a key point from past elections: Democrats tend to request and utilize absentee ballots more than Republicans. This is largely due to former President Trump’s repeated criticism of mail-in voting. He has often made negative remarks about the process, which may have discouraged Republican voters from using absentee ballots. In contrast, Democrats have embraced the convenience of voting by mail.
Based on this information, it’s fair to assume that a significant portion of those absentee ballots returned in Wisconsin are likely from Democratic voters. Of course, we can’t know the exact breakdown, but if we follow past trends, it’s reasonable to believe Democrats are outpacing Republicans in absentee ballot usage in this state.
Next, let’s turn our attention to North Carolina, where we have more detailed data on absentee ballots, including party affiliation. So far, a total of 57,200 absentee ballots have been requested in North Carolina. Since October 13th alone, an additional 6,043 ballots were requested, showing a steady increase in voter interest.
In North Carolina, Democrats currently make up 37.3% of the absentee ballot requests, with a total of 21,368 ballots. This represents a noticeable increase of 2,148 ballots since October 13th. Following close behind are voters categorized as "Other," who make up 35.8% of the requests, with 20,594 ballots. These voters include independents and potentially third-party voters, though it’s unclear how they will split their votes between Harris, Trump, or third-party candidates. This "Other" group has also seen a significant jump of 2,564 ballots since October 13th, making them a critical demographic to watch.
Republicans, on the other hand, trail behind with 26.9% of the absentee ballot requests, totaling 15,442 ballots. Their numbers have grown by 1,670 since October 13th, but they still lag behind both Democrats and independents. This further illustrates the point we mentioned earlier: Republicans are generally less likely to engage in absentee voting due to the influence of Trump’s negative rhetoric on the subject.
So, what does all this data tell us? Well, we can draw a few key conclusions. First, Democrats are clearly outpacing Republicans in absentee voting, at least in North Carolina. This is consistent with what we’ve seen in previous elections, where Democrats tend to favor mail-in ballots. The fact that Democrats hold a nearly 10% lead over Republicans in absentee ballot requests is undoubtedly good news for Kamala Harris.
The second major point to note is the sizable percentage of voters in the "Other" category. This group of independents and third-party voters makes up a substantial 35.8% of absentee ballot requests in North Carolina, nearly equal to the percentage of Democrats. This is a significant voting bloc, and it could play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of the election in North Carolina.
It’s difficult to predict how these independent voters will break. Some may lean toward Harris, while others could support Trump or third-party candidates. But the fact that this group is so large makes them a key factor in this election. Whichever candidate can win over a majority of these voters could gain a significant advantage in North Carolina.
Now, let’s step back and look at the broader picture of the 2024 electoral map. Why are Wisconsin and North Carolina so important? Let’s start with Wisconsin.
For Harris, Wisconsin is a must-win state. If she can secure Wisconsin, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, she’ll reach the crucial 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. This means that Wisconsin plays a pivotal role in her path to victory. Without it, her chances become much slimmer.
On the other hand, Trump has more flexibility when it comes to Wisconsin. While it would certainly help his campaign, he doesn’t necessarily need to win the state to secure 270 electoral votes. Trump’s primary focus is on winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If he can win those three states, he’ll reach 270 electoral votes and win the presidency without needing Wisconsin. This is why his campaign may not be as aggressively focused on Wisconsin as Harris’s campaign.
Now, let’s look at North Carolina. This state is essential for Trump. Without North Carolina, Trump’s path to victory becomes much more complicated. He would need to win not only Georgia and Pennsylvania but also Arizona and possibly Nevada to compensate for a loss in North Carolina. And while Trump is currently leading in Arizona, he’s not ahead in Nevada, making this a risky strategy.
For Harris, North Carolina offers an opportunity to expand her path to victory. If she wins North Carolina, she won’t necessarily need Pennsylvania to reach 270 electoral votes. She could win Michigan, Wisconsin, and one other state—either Arizona or Nevada—and still win the election. This gives Harris more flexibility and potential paths to victory than Trump, especially if she can pull off a win in North Carolina.
So, how do absentee ballots and early voting fit into this picture? Based on the current data, it seems that Harris is benefiting from the high turnout of absentee voters, particularly in Wisconsin and North Carolina. The fact that Democrats are outpacing Republicans in absentee ballot requests in North Carolina is a strong sign that Harris may have an advantage when it comes to early voting.
Moreover, the large number of independent voters in the "Other" category could also work in Harris’s favor. If a significant portion of these voters break for her, it could give her the edge she needs to win North Carolina, which would be a major blow to Trump’s campaign.
That being said, we can’t overlook the possibility that some of these independent voters may lean toward Trump or vote third party, which could shift the dynamics of the race. Additionally, not all Democrats who requested absentee ballots will necessarily vote for Harris. Some may choose to vote for third-party candidates or even for Trump. However, the fact that Democrats are leading in absentee ballot requests is still a positive sign for Harris.
Finally, it’s worth noting the surge in early voting in other states, such as Georgia, where over 300,000 people cast their ballots on the first day of early voting. This high turnout suggests strong voter enthusiasm, which could benefit both Trump and Harris depending on the state.
In summary, the absentee ballot data from Wisconsin and North Carolina paints a promising picture for Kamala Harris. Democrats are outpacing Republicans in absentee ballot requests, and the large number of independent voters could also play in her favor. For Trump, the path to victory in North Carolina is essential, while Harris has more flexibility if she can secure wins in other battleground states.
As always, polls and absentee ballot data give us a glimpse into the state of the race, but it’s the voters who ultimately decide the outcome. So, make sure you get out there and vote to make your voice heard.
Let me know what you think in the comments below. If you have any questions, feel free to ask. And don’t forget to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and stay tuned for more updates. See you in the next one!
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