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In my previous videos, I discussed the uncertainty surrounding independent or unaffiliated voters and how it's unclear whether they'll lean towards a Democrat or Republican, or if they'll support Harris or Trump. However, with this new polling data from those who have already voted, we have a clearer picture of their preferences.
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When it comes to independent voters, understanding their preferences can be challenging. Are they leaning towards Harris or Trump? First, let’s examine the favorability ratings. I’ve been closely monitoring these numbers and discussing them in my recent videos. Currently, Kamala Harris has just edged ahead, with her unfavorables slightly exceeding her favorables. It's a close margin, but noteworthy nonetheless. In contrast, former President Trump's ratings are struggling. His unfavorable ratings are significantly higher, with a disparity of around 8 to 10 points.
Let’s take a look at the latest poll conducted by AP, which includes favorability ratings for both presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
- Kamala Harris: 51% favorable, 46% unfavorable
- Tim Walz: 41% favorable, 37% unfavorable (he's fairly neutral)
- Donald Trump: 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable
- JD Vance: 33% favorable, 48% unfavorable
From this data, it's evident that Harris is performing much better in terms of favorability compared to Trump. This trend has been consistent throughout the election cycle. While Trump has a dedicated base, he also faces significant opposition.
Now, let’s shift our focus to early voting. Recent data indicates that the Republican Party's strategy to discourage mail-in and early voting—championed by Trump in the last election—is backfiring. Instead of deterring voters, it seems to be galvanizing them. We’re seeing record turnout among early voters, including many Republicans participating in the process. This shift could have important implications for the election as we move forward.
However, it’s important to recognize that while many Republicans are voting early, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all voting for former President Trump. There’s a chance some may be casting their votes for Harris. If we consider the anti-Trump Republican groups that exist—and there are quite a few—it wouldn't be surprising if a notable portion of Republicans aren't supporting Trump. Some might prefer Harris, while others may even go for a third-party candidate.
For Democrats, it’s likely that the majority will back Harris. While a few might opt for third-party candidates, and an even smaller fraction might support Trump, the overall trend points to Democratic support rallying around Harris.
Now, let’s examine a CNN poll that offers insight into these dynamics. Among likely Democratic voters, 93% are in favor of Harris, while 5% lean toward Trump. For independents, the numbers are more competitive, with 45% supporting Harris and 41% supporting Trump. Among Republicans, 92% favor Trump, while 7% are inclined toward Harris. I suspect that this 7% might actually be closer to 15% after the election, as some Republicans may be reconsidering their stance on Trump. If this turns out to be true, it could signal a shift in loyalty among traditional Republican voters.
This trend among Republicans is intriguing, especially considering the gender gap and the number of Republicans that Trump has alienated. There’s a segment of 2020 Trump voters who may now decide to support another candidate—or simply stay home on Election Day. This potential shift isn't captured in the polling numbers but could impact the overall turnout and voting patterns. Likewise, there are likely some Democratic voters who might sit out this election, disillusioned with Harris or current leadership.
Another poll explored when voters decided on their choice. This data doesn’t specify who they support but rather when they made up their minds. Of all respondents, 32% decided when Biden was elected, potentially indicating loyalty to his administration or a firm decision to vote differently next time. During Biden's first term, 9% made up their minds, 35% decided when Trump became the Republican nominee, and 19% settled on their choice when Harris took over for Biden. Finally, 5% only decided in the last few weeks or days.
Breaking this down further, among Republicans, 37% made up their minds when Biden took office, perhaps deciding at that moment to seek a change. During Biden’s term, 11% decided, 45% when Trump became the Republican nominee, 4% when Harris replaced Biden, and 3% at the last minute.
Democrats showed similar patterns: 33% decided when Biden was elected, 6% during his first term, 27% when Trump entered the race, 31% when Harris took over, and 3% in the last days. However, independents are particularly revealing: 14% made their decision when Biden was elected, 33% during his term, and 32% when Trump announced his campaign. This timing could work against Trump if these independents decided against him. Additionally, 23% made up their minds when Harris replaced Biden, and 18% only decided recently, perhaps indicating dissatisfaction with Trump’s return.
This last-minute decision-making among independents might benefit Harris, as many already have well-formed opinions about Trump from his prior presidency. Some may have waited until the end to see if Harris would bring a fresh perspective. There’s also the argument that as a current administration member, Harris represents continuity with Biden. Those wanting a real shift might lean toward Trump. Yet independents are often swayed by specific candidate qualities, and many have expressed disapproval of both Biden and Trump in the past, indicating potential for them to support Harris as a new face on the ballot.
Looking at recent polls, the data initially indicated Harris performing well. But in the past week, we've seen a sudden shift, with Trump’s support rising by four or five points. There hasn’t been any major event—no "October surprise"—that would justify such a shift. Harris hasn’t faced any setbacks, and, in fact, after their debate, many felt she performed better than Trump, though she only saw a modest bump from it. Yet suddenly, Trump has seen an unexpected surge.
So, what explains this change? Two factors may be at play. First, there’s a wave of less-reliable polls heavily favoring Trump, which is skewing the polling averages. We’re seeing the same polls repeated over and over, often from sources with a right-leaning bias, inflating Trump’s numbers in aggregated results. Second, the media benefits from framing this as a close race, as it encourages viewers to tune in on Election Night, adding to the suspense.
...Pennsylvania to reach 270 electoral votes, securing her a victory. This pathway gives Harris a solid shot if she can maintain her support among key demographics and retain early voting momentum.
For Trump, he needs to focus on regaining ground in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. If he wins these states, along with Pennsylvania, he hits 270, allowing him to secure a win. This election has boiled down to a handful of battleground states where early voting trends are giving us some insights, though the actual turnout on Election Day will be decisive.
When we break down the demographics, we see that women, who have generally favored Harris, are showing up in record numbers, particularly in key states like North Carolina and Georgia. This turnout among women could be pivotal, especially since women traditionally lean Democratic. In Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, women make up a majority of early voters, which could give Harris an edge.
Additionally, unaffiliated or independent voters, who appear to be leaning towards Harris, are likely to have a significant impact, as they make up a considerable portion of early voters in these battleground states. If these voting patterns hold, Harris could capitalize on this independent support.
Finally, the tight margins keep viewers engaged, as the media and pollsters emphasize that it's still anyone’s race. This narrative drives engagement and viewership, as no clear frontrunner has emerged in the battleground states, with each party's base turnout and independent sway crucial in determining the final outcome. The real story will unfold on Election Day, where final tallies from in-person votes will reveal if these early leads hold or if late Republican turnout shifts the results.
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