With just 20 days remaining until Election Day, we are officially in crunch time, the home stretch. The excitement is palpable as Election Day approaches, and small towns across New Hampshire will kick things off by counting their ballots at midnight. Soon after, states like Kentucky and Indiana will close their polls, and the results will start to pour in. However, even before this highly anticipated day, we are beginning to see early ballots being cast across the country, giving us a chance to examine the data and start drawing some early conclusions.
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Rather than simply relying on polling data, we can begin to look at early voting trends and models, which may offer a clearer sense of how the election is unfolding as ballots are submitted. Today, we will walk through an electoral college map, using some of the data we currently have at our disposal. The insights I'll be sharing are informed by various voting trend models, some of which are still in the works, as we're waiting for early voting to open in key states like North Carolina and Georgia. However, the early vote data available so far already provides significant clues about where things might be headed.
It is important to note that what we’ll be reviewing today is not a predictive model for the future. Instead, this is more of a snapshot of what the electoral college map might look like if the election were held today, based on the data we currently have. Before diving into the map, I’d like to give a special shoutout to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, led by Professor Michael McDonald. They have been doing incredible work gathering early vote data, voter turnout information, and more, all of which has been essential to building models like mine. For those who are interested in the raw numbers, I highly recommend checking out their website as it is one of the best election resources available. Some of the data I use for my models, particularly in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, comes from their website. So if you're a numbers person and enjoy digging into early voting data, definitely give them a look.
Now, let’s jump into the map and take a closer look at how this election is shaping up as of this moment.
To quickly recap my color-coding for the map: If a state is dark blue, that means I believe it will go to the Democrats with a high degree of certainty. Lighter blue indicates a Democratic lead but with more uncertainty, while light red signals a similar situation for the Republicans. A dark red state means it is almost certainly going to the Republicans. Importantly, this map reflects my subjective judgment but is informed by a growing amount of new data, making it more grounded in real-time trends.
Starting on the West Coast:
I always find it easier to start filling out the map from the West Coast, where many states have a clear partisan lean. The dynamics on the East Coast can get a bit more complicated, with several key swing states clustered together, so we’ll save that for later.
First up, Alaska. Right now, I’m putting Alaska in the Republican column. Historically, Alaska has been a reliably Republican state in presidential elections, though there have been some interesting developments in its congressional races in recent cycles. While we don’t have concrete early vote data from Alaska just yet, there was data available in 2020, and we may see similar trends this time around. However, based on what we know about the state’s political landscape, I’m comfortable saying that Alaska will lean Republican in this election.
Moving on to Hawaii, this is a state that will almost certainly go Democratic. It’s been a blue state for decades, and there’s no significant data or polling suggesting any reason to expect that to change in this election. Hawaii is a lock for the Democrats.
Now let’s look at the Pacific Northwest: Washington is a state where the Democratic Party has had a stronghold in recent years. While there are competitive House races in Washington, particularly in some of the suburban areas around Seattle, on the presidential level, it’s safe to say Washington will vote Democratic. The same goes for Oregon, where vote-by-mail data will eventually confirm a Democratic victory. Oregon is known for its vote-by-mail system, and once those numbers start to come in, we can expect a solid blue outcome in the presidential race. There may be competitive congressional races in Oregon, but the state as a whole is solidly Democratic.
Next, we have California, the biggest electoral prize on the West Coast with 54 electoral votes. California is also a reliably Democratic state on the presidential level, but what makes it particularly interesting in 2024 are the competitive congressional races. Several Republican-held seats in California could flip to the Democrats, especially after the recent redistricting. Notably, with the new congressional districts in Louisiana and Alabama, the Democrats only need to pick up five more seats to retake control of the House of Representatives. California could play a key role in that, as there are potentially five or six congressional seats that could shift from Republican to Democratic control in this election.
Moving on to Idaho, this is a state where nothing particularly competitive is happening on the presidential level. Idaho is reliably Republican, and I’m confident it will stay that way in 2024.
Montana is another state where the presidential race is not particularly competitive. Recent polling suggests that the Republican candidate has a comfortable 10-point lead, which aligns with Montana’s traditional political leanings. While there may be more competitive races down the ballot, such as in the Senate or House, the presidential race is pretty much set for the Republicans.
Wyoming is similarly a strong Republican state. The presidential election there is not in question, and the Republican candidate will likely win by a wide margin, as is typical for Wyoming.
Utah is a bit more interesting. While Utah is traditionally a Republican state, there are some longer-term trends that suggest it could become a swing state in the future. In 2024, however, I still expect it to vote Republican. However, I’ll be closely watching the margins in Utah County, which could provide some insight into how competitive Utah might become in future elections. If the Democratic candidate can garner over 40% of the vote, that would be a notable shift. For now, though, Utah remains safely in the Republican column.
Moving to the Southwest:
Let’s take a look at New Mexico. New Mexico is expected to vote Democratic in the presidential race. Polling and recent trends suggest a comfortable lead for the Democrats here, and there’s little reason to think that will change. There is a competitive congressional race in New Mexico, but on the presidential level, it’s safe to say that the state will go blue.
Colorado is another state where the Democrats have a strong advantage. While there is a competitive congressional district near Fort Collins, the state as a whole is expected to vote Democratic in the presidential race. Polling shows the Democrats with a solid lead, and I’m confident in putting Colorado in the blue column.
Now, let’s turn to some swing states, starting with Nevada. Nevada is always a closely watched state in presidential elections, and in 2024, it is no different. Unfortunately, we don’t have much early vote data from Nevada at this point. The state has restrictions on releasing early voting numbers until a few weeks before Election Day, so we’ll have to wait until October 19th to get a clearer picture of how things are shaping up there. While I’m cautiously optimistic about the Democrats’ chances in Nevada, I’m going to put it in the lighter blue category for now. Once we get more data, I’ll be able to make a more informed assessment.
Arizona is another key swing state, and we are starting to see some early numbers trickling in. According to data from Uplift, which is sourced from the Arizona Democratic Party voter file and Arizona county records, we’re seeing a very small sample of early votes. So far, 129 votes have been cast in Arizona, with 62 going to Democrats, 33 to Republicans, and 34 to independents. While this is a tiny number and not enough to draw any conclusions from, it’s interesting to see where these votes are coming from.
For example, a significant portion of these early votes are from Pinal County, which went for Donald Trump by 57.9% in 2020. Seeing the Democrats slightly ahead in early votes here is an encouraging sign for the Democratic campaign, though it’s far too early to make any predictions based on this data alone. The second-largest chunk of early votes is from Yuma County, another county that went for Trump in 2020 but is showing a slight Democratic lead in early votes this year.
Given the early numbers and polling trends, I’m putting Arizona in the blue column for now. I’ve long believed that Arizona could swing back to the Democrats, and this early data seems to support that possibility.
The Great Plains and the Midwest:
Next, we move to North Dakota and South Dakota, both of which are solidly Republican. There’s no competitive race here on the presidential level, and these states will almost certainly go to the Republicans.
Nebraska is an interesting state because, while the state as a whole will likely go Republican, its second congressional district, which includes the Omaha metropolitan area, could be competitive. Two recent polls suggest that the Democrats are performing well in this district, and there’s a chance they could win it, as they did in 2020. I’m not ready to call it just yet, but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Kansas and Oklahoma are both strongholds for the Republicans, and I don’t expect any surprises there. Both states are solid red.
So after Pennsylvania, let's dive into the remaining swing states. As of now, Pennsylvania is in the light blue category based on my model. With a turnout of 3.57% and the geographical accuracy of early voting data being less reliable, the early votes suggest a close race. Democrats seem to be on track to match their 2020 performance, though it's not a huge margin. That said, if the Democrats maintain their early voting turnout or surpass it, it will bode well for them in Pennsylvania. However, as most of Pennsylvania's voting is on Election Day, we need more data to make a stronger prediction. So far, I am cautiously optimistic about Pennsylvania remaining Democratic, but it will stay in the "light blue" category for now.
Now, let's move on to Florida. This is a state that has traditionally leaned Republican in recent elections. Looking at the Florida Nowcast model, it's clear that there's still some uncertainty due to recent weather events. The model, which tracks voter registration and turnout by party affiliation, shows that 2.83% of the state has already voted. Right now, the Democrats have a slight edge in terms of early votes, with nearly 190,000 votes compared to 166,000 for Republicans. However, we must keep in mind that Florida’s model is currently less accurate because several counties, like Hillsborough, haven’t reported significant data due to storm-related disruptions.
Once more data from these counties comes in, we’ll have a clearer picture. At the moment, though, Florida is leaning Republican. I’ve placed it in a very light red category, but that could change as more votes are cast and counted. We’ll keep an eye on how the storm impacts voter turnout in the coming weeks.
Georgia is another crucial battleground state. Early voting numbers aren’t available yet, as in-person early voting hasn’t started. It will kick off around October 15th, and that’s when we’ll start getting a clearer picture. For now, based on polling and other trends, I’m cautiously keeping Georgia in the light red category. Polls haven’t looked great for Democrats here, but as in-person voting picks up, we’ll get a better sense of where this state is headed.
North Carolina is in a somewhat similar situation. Early voting in person doesn’t begin until October 21st, but we are getting some early vote-by-mail data. These numbers are only a small portion of the total, so we can’t draw major conclusions just yet. However, based on the current polls, which seem to be a bit more favorable to Democrats than in Georgia, I’m leaning toward placing North Carolina in the light blue category for now. Once early in-person voting starts, we’ll have a much clearer understanding of the state's trajectory.
In Virginia, early voting is already underway, and we're getting both mail-in and in-person data. This means that the model here is more reliable compared to states like Florida or Pennsylvania, where only mail-in ballots have been reported so far. What we’re seeing in Virginia is that the model is becoming more Democratic each day, with a steady increase in votes from Democratic strongholds. Given these trends and the early data, I’m confident in placing Virginia in the solid blue category. As I mentioned earlier, I’m implementing a rule where once a state is placed in the "lock" category, I cannot change it. So Virginia will remain in the lock category for the Democrats.
Finally, let’s discuss Texas. Like Florida, Texas is another large state where early voting could be decisive. We don’t have a lot of early vote data just yet, but once in-person voting begins, we’ll get a much better idea of how the state is leaning. Based on the long-term trends and early indicators, Texas is still a Republican state, though perhaps not as solid as it once was. I’m keeping Texas in the light red category for now. If early voting data suggests a stronger Democratic surge, we may need to reevaluate that, but as of now, it's still leaning Republican.
So, where does that leave us overall? As of today, based on early voting data, polling, and other trends, I have the Democrats at 333 electoral votes and the Republicans at 235. One notable shift is Arizona, which I’ve moved into the Democratic column. This is something I’ve been predicting for a while, and based on the recent data coming out of the state, I feel confident about that move. It will be interesting to see if Arizona holds for the Democrats as more data comes in.
In summary, we’re in a crucial period of the election, and early voting is starting to provide more concrete data that can help us understand where things stand. Keep in mind that these projections are based on current data and trends; things can still change as more votes are cast and counted. I’ll continue updating this map as new data comes in, especially from key states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
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