Hello friends welcome back to my channel, Today we're diving deep into the presidential race and specifically focusing on early voting in North Carolina.
But what about North Carolina in the Electoral College? Some say it's more likely to flip blue than Georgia is." This is absolutely right. North Carolina is more likely to go blue than Georgia. We’ve seen it in the polling North Carolina has always been a tossup state. Let me show you the latest from 538 regarding North Carolina.
Polling Overview
Currently, Trump holds a very slight lead with a +0.5 advantage. But let’s take a look at some of the latest polling numbers real quick before we dive into early voting data. Here’s a snapshot:
Harris +2, Harris +1
Trump +1, Trump +2
Trump +2, Harris +3
Harris +2, Trump +2, Trump +1
Now, where are these polls coming from? We’ve got a variety of sources like Atlas Intel, Morning Consult, Redfield, Signal, and a couple from Quinnipiac. Even Troga, which leans right, shows Trump with a +1 lead. And interestingly, a poll conducted by the Trump campaign itself (FBO) also gives Trump just a +1 lead. So, these are the latest numbers we have from North Carolina.
Early Voting Data
Now, let’s move on to the raw early voting data, which is incredibly important. North Carolina does a great job of keeping voters updated by sending out daily PDFs. We’re looking at the data from October 20th, which is actually based on info from the day before, October 19th. As of now, 952,645 votes have been cast, though we know it’s already surpassed a million because the data is always a day behind.
Let’s break this down a bit:
Inperson voting: 862,500 votes so far.
Now, comparing this to 2020, we had about 842,000 early votes cast at the same time, so we’re seeing an increase. In 2016, there were only 395,000, so the growth is substantial. Early voting records are being broken across the board.
Party Affiliation Breakdown
Now, let’s get into party affiliation. This is important because it gives us a rough idea of where the race might be heading:
Democrats: 2.43 million registered voters (31% of the electorate)
Republicans: 2.31 million registered voters (30%)
Unaffiliated: 2.95 million registered voters (38%)
What makes North Carolina so unique is that unaffiliated voters make up the largest voting block. At 38%, they have more voting power than either Democrats or Republicans. This is crucial because we really don’t know how this massive group will swing, which adds an element of unpredictability.
Demographics Breakdown
Let’s also talk about some key demographics because they can offer clues on which way North Carolina might go. Based on voter registration:
Women make up 49% of the electorate.
Men make up 42%.
White voters represent 63%, while Black voters account for 19.6%. Other races make up 16.4%.
From a strategic standpoint, Trump’s campaign will likely focus on white, noncollegeeducated males, a group that traditionally leans towards him. On the other hand, Harris has a strong advantage among female voters, especially following the Dobbs decision, which has made reproductive rights a central issue for many.
Vote Turnout by Party
Looking at the ballots already cast, here’s the breakdown:
Democrats: 335,577 ballots (13.8% turnout)
Republicans: 321,250 ballots (13.85% turnout)
Unaffiliated voters: 293,200 ballots.
The proportion of early votes so far is slightly higher for Democrats, but Republicans are close behind. What’s really interesting is that the largest block—unaffiliated voters—remains a wild card, making predictions tough.
Race and Gender Voting Trends
Breaking it down further by race, we see:
White voters: 675,000 ballots (13.59% turnout)
Black voters: 175,000 ballots (11.47% turnout)
These numbers are significant. The Trump campaign sees white voters, particularly white males, as a solid base. In contrast, Black voters tend to lean heavily towards Harris, though the turnout is currently lower.
Gender is another important factor. Out of all registered voters:
49.3% are women and they have cast 49.1% of the ballots so far, which gives Harris an edge since women tend to support her more, especially on issues like reproductive rights.
42.01% are men, with 42.98% having voted so far, so male turnout is slightly above their proportion as well.
Right now, female voters are outpacing their share of the electorate, which could be a good sign for Harris. Historically, Harris has a 20point advantage over Trump among women, so this increased turnout could tip the scales in her favor.
Impact of Unaffiliated Voters
Now, the real mystery remains with the unaffiliated voters. As we mentioned earlier, they make up 38% of the electorate, and without a clear indication of how they’ll vote, they are the true wild cards in this election. However, looking at gender and race, we can make some educated guesses about the overall direction of the vote.
Electoral College Map Overview
Let’s now turn to the electoral map. This is how the battlegrounds are shaping up:
For Harris, her path to victory looks like this:
Winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania gives her 270 electoral votes, just enough to win.
But if she flips North Carolina, that would put her at 267, meaning she’d only need one more state to secure the presidency. Winning North Carolina opens up more possibilities for her.
For Trump:
His most straightforward path involves winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which gives him exactly 270 electoral votes.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he would need to pick up Michigan along with Georgia and North Carolina to win.
In summary, North Carolina is shaping up to be a major battleground, and the early voting data should give Harris’s campaign a boost of confidence. Women voters are turning out in larger numbers, which could spell trouble for Trump. However, the large pool of unaffiliated voters keeps the outcome uncertain.
That wraps up today’s look at North Carolina’s pivotal role in the presidential race. Make sure you’re subscribed and hit that notification bell for more updates as we continue to break down the early voting numbers in key swing states. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below do you think North Carolina will flip blue, or will Trump hold on? Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you in the next one!
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