In latest 2024 election predictions, Donald Trump is emerging as the clear frontrunner against Kamala Harris. With just 26 days left until the election, Trump holds a commanding 55.4% chance of victory. Over the past two days, several key states have flipped in his favor, significantly altering the electoral map. In this video, we will closely examine the revised 2024 election map based on PolyMarket’s most recent estimates, beginning with the West Coast and progressing through each state to provide a comprehensive analysis of what these projections indicate for the upcoming election.
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Starting on the West Coast, Kamala Harris is expected to win the traditional Democratic strongholds of Washington, Oregon, and California without much difficulty. These three states are considered safe for the Democratic Party, with Harris having at least a 95% probability of winning in each of them. California, with its 54 electoral votes, remains the largest prize on the West Coast, and it has been a Democratic stronghold for decades. Oregon and Washington, similarly, have consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections. With these states firmly in Harris's column, she secures a solid base of electoral votes to build upon.
However, the election will be far more competitive in Nevada. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the state by just over two percentage points, but the dynamics have shifted significantly in 2024. According to PolyMarket’s estimates, Nevada is now essentially a toss-up, with Harris holding a narrow 52% chance of victory compared to Trump’s 49%. This razor-thin margin makes Nevada one of the most closely contested states in the country. While Harris currently holds a slight advantage, the race could easily go either way, making Nevada a critical battleground in the final weeks of the campaign.
Next, we turn to Arizona, where Trump has significantly improved his standing compared to 2020. Despite losing the state to Joe Biden in the last election, Trump now holds a commanding lead, with a 66% chance of victory according to PolyMarket. This marks a dramatic shift from earlier in the campaign when Harris had hoped to build on Biden’s success in the state. However, her campaign has struggled in Arizona, and Trump’s strong performance in recent polls has solidified his position as the favorite.
The erosion of Democratic support in Arizona has been attributed to several factors. Harris’s performance during the Democratic National Convention was underwhelming, and her campaign has failed to energize key voter groups in the state. Additionally, the decision by Democratic Party leaders to replace Joe Biden as the nominee has backfired in many swing states, including Arizona. The Democratic base appears fractured, and Harris has not been able to replicate Biden’s success in building a broad coalition of support. As a result, Arizona, which was once seen as a possible pickup for the Democrats, now seems firmly in Trump’s column. The state will likely be marked as “lean red” on most electoral maps, reflecting Trump’s growing advantage.
Moving on to Colorado and New Mexico, Kamala Harris is expected to win both states comfortably. In Colorado, Harris has a 97% chance of victory, while in New Mexico, her chances are pegged at 91%. Although there were concerns earlier in the campaign that New Mexico might become more competitive, the state has remained relatively stable in favor of the Democrats. New Mexico was briefly considered a potential battleground after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, but Harris has managed to consolidate support among Democratic voters, ensuring that the state remains in the blue column.
Colorado, with its growing urban population and progressive leanings, has become increasingly Democratic in recent years. Harris’s strong position in the state reflects this trend, and it is unlikely that Trump will be able to make significant inroads there. As a result, Colorado and New Mexico will both be marked as “safe blue” on our electoral map.
Texas, the second-largest state in terms of electoral votes, remains a Republican stronghold. According to PolyMarket, Trump has maintained a consistent lead throughout the election cycle, and he is expected to win the state for the third consecutive time. With a 90% chance of victory, Trump’s dominance in Texas is unquestionable. The state has been a cornerstone of Republican presidential victories for decades, and despite demographic changes that have made it somewhat more competitive in recent years, it remains firmly in the GOP’s grip.
Texas is a crucial state for any Republican candidate, and its 40 electoral votes are essential to Trump’s path to victory. Although Democrats have made gains in the state’s urban centers, the rural and suburban areas continue to provide a strong base of support for Trump. As a result, Texas will be marked as “safe red” on the electoral map, reflecting the state’s solid Republican leanings.
In the Great Plains and Mountain West, Trump is expected to dominate. States like Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota are all solidly in the Republican column, with Trump having more than a 90% chance of winning in each of them. Similarly, Trump is projected to win Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma by wide margins. The only area of Nebraska that is competitive is the state’s second congressional district, which allocates one electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. In that district, Harris has an 89% chance of winning, making it a rare blue spot in an otherwise red region.
Alaska, traditionally a Republican state, is also expected to go for Trump, with a 92% chance of victory. On the opposite end of the map, Hawaii is considered a safe Democratic state, with Harris holding a 95% chance of winning. These states are unlikely to change the overall dynamics of the race, as they are firmly in their respective parties’ camps.
For Kamala Harris to have any realistic chance of winning the presidency, she must win most of the key battleground states in the Midwest. This includes Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—states that formed the “blue wall” that Democrats relied on for decades before Trump’s upset victory in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to rebuild the blue wall, but the 2024 race is proving to be much more challenging for Harris.
Minnesota, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. Despite this, Harris’s position in the state is surprisingly weak. According to PolyMarket, she has a 91% chance of winning Minnesota, which, while still high, is lower than expected for a state with such a long history of supporting Democratic candidates. In 2020, Biden won Minnesota by a significant margin, but Harris’s lead in the polls has narrowed to just 4%. Although Minnesota is still likely to remain in the Democratic column, the closer-than-expected race suggests that Harris’s campaign is struggling even in traditionally safe states.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, has become a major battleground. PolyMarket’s estimates show Trump with a slight edge in the state, with a 50.5% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 49.5%. This marks the first time since early August that Trump has been favored in Wisconsin, and the polling averages reflect a similarly tight race. While Harris still leads in some polls, the overall trend has shifted in Trump’s favor, with several recent surveys showing a tie. Given the state’s importance in the overall electoral map, Wisconsin will be marked as “tilt red” for now, but the race remains highly fluid.
Michigan, another key battleground, is also trending in Trump’s direction. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.8%, making it one of the more liberal swing states. However, Trump now leads in the polling averages by nearly 1%, and PolyMarket gives him a 52% chance of winning the state. This is a significant shift from just a few weeks ago when Harris had a 68% chance of victory. Michigan’s 15 electoral votes are crucial for both candidates, and the state will likely be a focal point in the final days of the campaign. For now, Michigan will be marked as “tilt red,” reflecting Trump’s narrow lead.
Pennsylvania, the final piece of the blue wall, is also leaning toward Trump. With a 56% chance of victory according to PolyMarket, Trump is now the favorite in a state that Biden carried in 2020. Polls show Trump leading by 0.3%, and the state’s 19 electoral votes could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the election. Pennsylvania will be marked as “lean red” on our map, reflecting Trump’s growing advantage.
In the South, Trump continues to dominate in states like Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and South Carolina. These states have long been Republican strongholds, and Trump is expected to win them comfortably.
The more competitive states in the South include Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Virginia, while somewhat competitive earlier in the race, is now expected to go to Harris, with an 89% chance of victory. Despite some tightening in the polls, Virginia remains a reliably blue state, and Harris is likely to win its 13 electoral votes. The state will be marked as “probably blue” on our map.
North Carolina is leaning toward Trump, with the former president holding a 62% chance of victory. Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, and the latest polls show him with a consistent lead. North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes will be marked as “lean red” on the map.
Georgia, once considered a battleground, is also tilting toward Trump. After Biden’s narrow victory in the state in 2020, Georgia was expected to be a key battleground again in 2024. However, Trump now holds a 61% chance of winning the state, and recent polling shows him leading by 1.5%. Although the race remains close, Trump is now the favorite in Georgia, and the state will be marked as “lean red” on our map.
Florida, the largest swing state in the South, has shifted decisively in Trump’s favor. According to PolyMarket, Trump has a 71% chance of winning Florida, and polls show him leading by 3-4%. Florida’s 30 electoral votes are critical to both candidates, but Trump’s strong performance in the state makes it unlikely that Harris will be able to win there. Florida will be marked as “probably red” on the map.
In the Northeast, Kamala Harris is expected to perform well. States like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut are all solidly in the Democratic column, with Harris having more than a 90% chance of winning each of them. Vermont and Rhode Island are similarly safe for the Democrats.
Maine and New Hampshire, however, are more competitive. In Maine, Harris is favored to win three of the state’s four electoral votes, with a 95% chance of victory in the statewide and first congressional district races. However, Trump is expected to win the second congressional district, which awards one electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. Trump has a 68% chance of winning that district, making it a rare red spot in an otherwise blue region.
New Hampshire, once a key battleground, is now leaning toward Harris. PolyMarket gives her a 69% chance of winning the state, and recent polls show her leading by 5-6%. New Hampshire’s four electoral votes will be marked as “lean blue” on our map.
Based on PolyMarket’s latest estimates, Donald Trump is the clear favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. He currently has a 55.4% chance of victory, compared to Kamala Harris’s 44.6%. Several key states have flipped in Trump’s favor over the past few days, including Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. With these states now leaning toward Trump, the electoral map has shifted significantly in his favor.
Harris still has a path to victory, but it will require her to win most of the remaining battleground states. She must hold on to Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, while flipping at least two of the four Midwestern states that are currently leaning toward Trump. If she can do that, the race will likely come down to a few thousand votes in key swing states.
For now, however, Trump is the clear frontrunner, and the momentum is on his side as we enter the final weeks of the campaign. Keep following our coverage for the latest updates on the 2024 election.
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