In today’s video, we’re entering the home stretch of the 2024 presidential race, which is now just nine days away from its conclusion. As the election rapidly approaches, former President Donald Trump continues to display unprecedented strength, outpacing his opponent Kamala Harris in several key states. I’ll be updating my 2024 electoral map forecast to give you an in-depth look at where each candidate stands and the path each must take to reach the crucial 270 electoral votes. This projection aims to analyze not only the current state of the race, but also to identify trends that will likely shape the final outcome.
We’ll begin with a rundown of the strong states, those in which each candidate is almost guaranteed a victory by a margin of 15 points or more. These races form the foundation of each candidate’s electoral base, securing vital numbers before moving into more competitive territory. We’ll go over the safe blue states for Kamala Harris and the safe red states for Donald Trump, which set up a close tie as we move into the likely states, where one candidate has a strong but not unshakeable lead. Then, we’ll examine the weak states, which are moderately competitive but still show a clear favorite. Finally, we’ll focus on the remaining seven states, which make up the most hotly contested battlegrounds in this election. These seven key states, including Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, are critical to either candidate’s path to victory.
This detailed analysis will also highlight shifts in voter demographics, key polling changes, and strategic campaign initiatives that are influencing the electoral map. With less than two weeks until Election Day, every decision, campaign visit, and polling change can dramatically impact the outcome.
Safe blue states for Harris
Let’s start with the safe blue states, where Harris is expected to win by a considerable margin. These include traditionally liberal strongholds where Democratic support has historically been strong and consistent. Washington, California, and Hawaii, for example, remain firmly on Harris’ side, as do most states in the northeastern United States. As in recent elections, states like Illinois, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware show little sign of shifting toward the GOP. Maryland and the District of Columbia, both deeply blue regions, are also comfortably on Harris’ side, along with Maine’s First Congressional District, which continues its trend of Democratic dominance. Taken together, these safe blue states provide Harris with a reliable base of 131 electoral votes, a solid starting position but one that leaves plenty of work to do if she hopes to achieve a majority.
Red states safe for Trump
As for Trump, we see a similarly strong base of states marked red. Safe Republican states encompass much of the Deep South and rural West, areas where Trump enjoys strong support. Key states in this category include Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana, which are consistently conservative, along with the Dakotas, Nebraska (with the exception of his 2nd Congressional District), Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. In addition, Trump is poised to capture Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, and South Carolina, where his support remains as strong as ever. With these states combined, Trump starts with an electoral vote base that nearly matches Harris’s. This early tie between the candidates underscores just how critical the likely, close, decisive states ahead will be.
Likely states for both candidates
In the next tier are the “likely” states, where each candidate is projected to win by a margin of 7 to 15 percentage points. These states remain competitive, but one candidate clearly has the advantage. For Trump, likely Republican states include Alaska, which leans conservative despite recent Democratic gains, as well as Maine’s Second Congressional District, which he’s poised to win for a third time. We also see Ohio and Iowa here, states that Democrats have often hoped to flip but which have cemented themselves as Republican strongholds since 2016. These states defied polls and expectations during the 2016 and 2020 elections, ultimately favoring Trump by significant margins. Given current trends, Trump is likely to hold both Ohio and Iowa with double-digit leads, adding valuable Midwestern support to his map.
In the Sun Belt, two states most likely to go Republican stand out: Texas and Florida. Both states are competitive on paper, but lean heavily toward Trump this cycle. Texas, which Trump won by six points in 2020, has only moved further in his column. Although some polls during the 2020 cycle showed Biden ahead, Trump ultimately won the state by a solid margin. Current projections suggest Trump will win Texas by seven to ten points, possibly his largest margin in the state yet. Florida, with its 30 electoral votes, is another critical win for Trump. Biden’s 2020 performance in Florida fell short of expectations, and Democrats have struggled to gain ground there since. Trump is projected to win Florida by between seven and twelve points this cycle, which will add a significant boost to his total.
With these likely Republican states secured, Trump’s tally reaches 219 electoral votes, putting him just 51 away from victory. This advance sets up a challenging path for Harris, who will need a strong showing in both likely swing states and those with weak majorities to remain competitive.
On Harris’ side, states that are likely to go Democratic include Oregon and New Jersey, both of which lean liberal but have shown some weakening in support. Oregon in particular has seen conservative movements grow, though Harris remains the front-runner. New York also joins this group. Though a traditionally Democratic state, Harris’ margin in New York is expected to be the narrowest for a Democratic candidate since 1988, signaling challenges ahead. Finally, Colorado rounds out the likely states for Harris. Biden won Colorado by 14 points in 2020, but Harris is unlikely to match that margin. Analysts predict she will win by around seven points, marking a reduction in Democratic dominance. These likely Democratic states bring Harris to 152 electoral votes, still behind Trump’s total.
Weak states for both candidates
Now, we'll focus on the narrowest victory states, where the candidates are favored by narrower margins (between two and seven points), making these races slightly more competitive. Starting with Harris's victory states, we have Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine, and New Hampshire. Minnesota has been a Democratic stronghold since the 1970s, but its margin has shrunk. Harris's lead in the polls is between three and four points, largely helped by the popularity of Governor Tim Walz. Without Walz, Minnesota would be among the most competitive states in the union.
In New Mexico, Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 is expected to shrink as Hispanic support for Democrats declines. Current polls show Harris with a six-point lead, making New Mexico a strongly blue-leaning state. Maine and New Hampshire also fall into this category. Although Biden won both states by comfortable margins in 2020, Harris’s poll numbers reflect closer races, similar to Clinton’s narrow win in New Hampshire in 2016. Maine’s 2nd District, on the other hand, remains in favor of Trump. Lastly, Virginia rounds out the list of weakly blue-leaning states. Biden won here by 10 points in 2020, but the state has since shifted to the right. Current polls show Harris with just a five-point lead, keeping Virginia a weakly blue-leaning state.
These win-margin states add 21 electoral votes to Harris’ total, bringing her total to 173. Meanwhile, Trump’s win-margin states include Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania — three key swing states. Starting with Georgia, Trump is leading by 2.2% in polls, a notable turnaround from Biden’s narrow win here in 2020. Polling accuracy in Georgia is traditionally high, and the projected three- to four-point margin for Trump here reflects strong Republican momentum.
States that are leaning and leaning in favor of Trump
Next up is Arizona, another Sun Belt state that Trump must win to secure a path to victory. Biden’s Arizona win in 2020 was close, but Trump now holds a 1.5-point lead. Considering that polls have consistently underestimated Trump’s support, Arizona is expected to turn red by about three points. After Arizona, we move on to Pennsylvania, a vital state with 20 electoral votes. Trump’s slim 0.6% polling lead in Pennsylvania, coupled with high campaign activity, highlights its importance. If Trump prevails in Pennsylvania, Harris’ path to victory narrows considerably.
In the final phase, we look at the swing states, where the races are within two points of each other and could easily swing in either direction. For Trump, North Carolina represents a swing state. Although Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, this year’s gubernatorial race complicates the outcome. Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s controversies have impacted local races, but Trump is still expected to eke out a narrow victory. Such a win would give Trump more than 270 electoral votes, securing him the presidency.
Finally, we look at Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, three states that are expected to deliver tight results. Trump leads by 0.2% in both Michigan and Wisconsin, marking a return to the dynamics of 2016, where he narrowly won each state. The two have historically voted close together, and current polls suggest they will go Republican. Nevada, the final battleground state, is trending Republican but remains highly competitive. Polls show Trump leading by 0.7%, though the race is volatile due to close margins in recent cycles.
With these projections, our final electoral map shows Trump winning with 312 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed. Harris, despite maintaining her strength in traditionally Democratic areas, falls short in key states. As Election Day approaches, the momentum is clearly in Trump’s favor, with little sign of the trend changing.
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