Hello everyone, today we will be building a 2024 election map based on party registration of the nearly 14 million votes already cast. NBC News provides a fantastic tool tracking mail-in and early in-person voting almost everywhere. So far, registered Democrats account for 47% of the ballots, Republicans for 36%, and independents or third-party voters for 17%. While Democrats often hold an early lead due to their preference for mail-in voting, Republicans tend to dominate on Election Day itself. To provide a realistic prediction, we’ll also explore polling data, demographic trends, and prediction markets alongside these early numbers.
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Starting with the solid states, some regions are predictable enough that we don't need detailed early vote data to classify them. On Kamala Harris's side, the Pacific States of Washington and Hawaii, contributing 16 electoral votes, are safely Democratic. On the Republican side, the Southern states of Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky, providing 56 electoral votes, are also strongholds for Donald Trump.
Let’s now consider the rest of the safe states. In the Midwest and Mountain West, early vote data shows Trump comfortably ahead in Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana, and Tennessee. Together, these states increase Trump's electoral vote count to 114. For now, we’ll leave Nebraska and West Virginia undecided due to closer-than-usual early voting numbers. However, it's worth noting that Republicans traditionally outperform in these states by Election Day.
For Kamala Harris, the deep blue states of Oregon, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Rhode Island continue to show overwhelming Democratic leads. These strongholds grant Harris 181 electoral votes.
Moving to more competitive states, Alaska is a likely Republican state despite a large percentage of independent voters. In Nevada, early vote data shows Democrats slightly ahead, similar to the 2020 election, but polling suggests a tight race. We’ll classify Nevada as a tilt blue state for Harris.
Arizona, which was narrowly won by Biden in 2020, sees Republicans outperforming Democrats in early voting. This state is leaning toward Trump, and we’ll mark it as tilt Republican. Meanwhile, Colorado and New Mexico are safely Democratic, with Democrats showing significant early vote leads.
In Texas, where early voting has just started, Democrats lead early mail-in voting, but Republicans typically surge as Election Day approaches. Given past trends and polling, Texas remains in the lean Republican category.
In Florida, early voting is about to begin, and Democrats currently lead in voter registration. However, recent trends favor Republicans, and polling shows Trump leading by a significant margin. Florida will likely lean Republican, though this could shift as more data comes in.
Georgia, another battleground state, has seen high early voting numbers, with Republicans leading by three points. However, Democrats are outperforming their 2020 early voting figures. Given Trump’s slight polling lead, we’ll place Georgia in the tilt Republican category.
North Carolina, where early voting is underway, sees Democrats slightly ahead in early ballots. Yet, Republicans typically make up ground on Election Day, and polling shows Trump with a slight edge. We’ll classify North Carolina as a tilt Republican state.
Now, turning to the Midwest, Minnesota remains likely Democratic based on strong early voting data favoring Democrats. Meanwhile, Iowa and Ohio are likely Republican, continuing their trend of rightward shifts in recent elections.
Finally, the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are pivotal. These states flipped to Biden in 2020 after Trump narrowly won them in 2016. All three are expected to be extremely competitive again, and the final results may determine the outcome of the election.
With the map taking shape, Trump leads with 238 electoral votes, while Harris has 202, leaving several battleground states that will decide the final outcome. Stay tuned as we continue to track early voting data and analyze polling trends leading up to Election Day.
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